Quote from: BitHodler on January 08, 2019, 09:00:38 PM

Quote from: exstasie on January 08, 2019, 06:58:21 PM

If you're expecting all ICO gains to be erased or all speculators to leave the market, I think you'll be disappointed. ICO teams are largely selling because of the bear market, for the same reason that miners are hedging short on their operations. They aren't the cause of the bear market, which is related to a much larger distribution cycle.

They aren't the cause, but will contribute to having it last way longer. Most of the dumps that we have seen happening are related to ICOs, and the sooner they run out of stock, the sooner we'll find our way up again.

It will happen eventually, but we're not there yet. The bags that ICOs hold are still something to not discard. It requires one significant dump to have them fear and dump as well, because the fear of lower prices is a real threat to their existence.

That's the point: you're predicting that further dumps will occur, which will then trigger ICOs to continue liquidating. That's very possible, but the fact that ICOs still have considerable funds is moot. Their relevance totally relies on excessive supply or weak demand in the Bitcoin market sustaining. ICOs and underwater investors both have a strong interest in holding in case the market reverses.

I think it's a lot more legitimate to just say "it's a bear market until proven otherwise" and assess the price trend on a technical basis. Things like "ICOs need to deflate" or "retail speculators need to capitulate" sound convincing on a rhetorical level, but they're impossible to quantify into price.

Quote from: BitHodler on January 08, 2019, 09:00:38 PM

Quote from: exstasie on January 08, 2019, 06:58:21 PM

The chart will tell us when this happens much more clearly than speculating about ICOs and short term speculators can.

The charts have been fooling most people. It's always easy to revert back to the good old charts after an event has taken place. Never do I see anyone provide useful information about the market beforehand.

I don't think you're looking hard enough. If you're focusing on random posts in Speculation or talking heads on CNBC, you're not going to find much value there.

Also, charts aren't so valuable for predictions. Their value lies in informing you when reversals and breakouts are occurring and when trends are continuing or ending. Successful traders are using charts to react to changing conditions, not to predict the future.

Most people misuse TA and screw up a few trades, then spend years calling it a scam. To boot, markets are unpredictable so good traders should only be expect to be correct 50% or 60% of the time. Maximizing profits is therefore more about risk management than being correct.