Quote from: HairyMaclairy on January 11, 2019, 09:17:22 PM

The bottom is probably not in, but it is also probably very close. It could happen tomorrow or anytime in the next 8 months before the halvening starts to kick in.

We need a deep penetration of the 200 Week Moving Average to kick off an enormous volume spike that will seal the bottom of this bear market. So basically we are sitting around waiting for one final, terrifying price crash.

If you want to wait until it is "safe" to buy, wait until the Moving Averages are all back in the correct order, eg 30 is above the 50 which is above the 100 which is above the 200. This last happened in November 2016 around $420 which sparked the first real rally of the bull market. The taupe and purple lines (30 and 50) were the last to uncross in November 2016. It is reasonable to expect they will uncross again sometime in late 2019, early 2020 at latest.

All of this assumes we follow the model of the 2014 / 2015 cryptowinter. To date we have followed it closely, so there is no particular reason to think we will not continue to do so.

This is not investment advice, I am a drunk with hygiene issues and a degenerate gambler.

Hey Hairy, I always follow your TA with interest and play at my own, too. I too think the 2014 /2015 overlay is pretty close.

So; while I agree Bitcoin did have to wait until Nov 2016 to really start the last bull run, it was in January 2015 that saw the last push down of the bears to new lows. So, while things are not in the bull zone yet, do you not think it 'possible' (as my hopium-addled brain thinks) that this is finally the beginning of the end?

Personally, I am thinking a dull sideways, but slowly upward grind (sure, with fits and starts) from here to the end of this year. Not a bull run yet - but past the definitive end of the bear market.

I have stuck my neck out with predictive and likely foolhardy posts in the past 24 hours, but I don't think the FUD is working any more, I think too many people think that even here is cheap - and I think too many people would rather buy at 3XXX and risk it dipping than be forced to buy at 4K or 5K if Bitcoin has a French Weekend when they aren't watching.

If there is to be a new ATH, according to pattern - with the order of increase we saw between the last two, then (to extrapolate) what is the difference buying at 3K or 2K if it might hit 50K inside 2 years?