Quote from: HairyMaclairy on January 11, 2019, 09:17:22 PM

Quote from: Falcon Lover on January 11, 2019, 10:29:18 AM

Quote from: HairyMaclairy on January 11, 2019, 10:00:09 AM

Quote from: Falcon Lover on January 11, 2019, 09:31:44 AM

Ok so Ive been invested in BTC since 2018 with an average cost basis of about 8k per coin. Sadly I dont see how we arent going to have at least one more huge move down well below 3k. I have orders to buy 3 more coins if we hit 2k. I dont want to sell rn but I am considering taking out a short position here. I believe in Bitcoin, but Im tired of so much losing in my first year Embarrassed

Could a few members help me out and post their best argument for why we already saw the bottom, or their best argument of why we are gonna have another big move to new lows.

Thank you in advance.

Stop worrying about shorting the final gasp of the bear market and start thinking about when you are going to long the bottom and how you are going to do it. Much more profitable.

I have thought about this, thats why I said I have orders to buy 3 more coins at 2k. Thats all I can afford to lose. It will bring my total investment to almost 40k. I will not invest another dollar after that. All ive known investing in Bitcoin is a terrible bear market and its hard not to worry as early adopters dump on my face Cry

, but thank you for the advice.

Im interested in hearing other Bitcoiners best argument(s) as to why the bottom is not in yet(i believe it isnt but hope im wrong). If you have one id love to hear it. If not thanks anyway.

The bottom is probably not in, but it is also probably very close. It could happen tomorrow or anytime in the next 8 months before the halvening starts to kick in.

We need a deep penetration of the 200 Week Moving Average to kick off an enormous volume spike that will seal the bottom of this bear market. So basically we are sitting around waiting for one final, terrifying price crash.

If you want to wait until it is "safe" to buy, wait until the Moving Averages are all back in the correct order, eg 30 is above the 50 which is above the 100 which is above the 200. This last happened in November 2016 around $420 which sparked the first real rally of the bull market. The taupe and purple lines (30 and 50) were the last to uncross in November 2016. It is reasonable to expect they will uncross again sometime in late 2019, early 2020 at latest.

All of this assumes we follow the model of the 2014 / 2015 cryptowinter. To date we have followed it closely, so there is no particular reason to think we will not continue to do so.

This is not investment advice, I am a drunk with hygiene issues and a degenerate gambler.

I agree with you HairyMaclairy. My chart work posted yesterday is essentially looking for that final low as well. You gave good advice for those who want to be "safe"... referring to the moving averages.