"If I'm right in the thesis, what do I get?"
"But on the other hand, if I am wrong, what is the maximum I lose?"
With these two bezels on your head, it's easy to size and risk your bet.
The risk is huge and so we must scale very well the amount we have to lose, not to fall into the fallacy of trying to solve life with a single shot.
Only too many people are blinded by their optimism and fail to see the downside. It seems that when it comes to investing people are a lot more naive than in other aspects of life where they're able to think rationally and adapt to risk.
I would say people who are in this market are just assuming in their head right now how well bitcoin is going to make them rich in the long term and they are not investing because they believe in the long term potential when it comes to the usage of the market globally for a lot of reasons. So, trust me, I am not surprised if I see a lot of people in this market with their naivety seeing this space as gambling and not even considering the risk involved before hitting the market to invest or trade.