Quote from: kurious on January 15, 2019, 11:57:11 AM

Quote from: HairyMaclairy on January 15, 2019, 07:17:39 AM

Bitcoin bottomed around 0400 hours GMT on 14 January 2015.

We are now past that time in this cycle. If the fractal holds, we have bottomed.

I just bought again.

I agree with your conclusion, but on one minor point, the absolute bottom of the cycle was the probably the low on Dec 15 (3122 on Stamp). That said if the Jan 14th proves to be the lowest point this year, you are correct in the thrust of what you say - that the turning point has been reached. It was certainly the point to look out for and pass by.

I do agree with you, as you know and am glad to see your (superior) TA-based analysis confirms my own feelings and crude trend calculations. I have also been buying, cancelling my low-ball bids and transferring in all available fiat to mop up what I can before the end of Jan.

It will not be significantly profitable in the short term, although I do think going over 10K before the end of this year is actually very possible (by early November, to stick my neck out).

All this is based on rough overlays of 2015 to now, which have thus far proved sufficiently close to be worth betting on. November '15 saw a spike up to over 3x the January low that year, but it was a choppy ride to there, see charts for details.

I doubt we will see an exact overlay, as if it gets any closer it will be front run, or disrupted. But so far...?

DYOR.

Overlays seem dangerous, but I am glad it is working out for you, so far.