Quote from: HairyMaclairy on January 28, 2019, 07:43:39 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on January 28, 2019, 07:30:44 PM

Quote from: HairyMaclairy on January 28, 2019, 07:20:34 PM

Quote from: PoolMinor on January 28, 2019, 05:43:49 AM

Quote from: HairyMaclairy on January 21, 2019, 06:39:48 AM

Quote from: PoolMinor on January 21, 2019, 06:30:55 AM

Edit:
Also HM your "overlay" is incorrect.

Lies

In what sense is it incorrect?

It is simply incorrect because history rhymes. Your construction of overlay diminishes the obvious delay in timing from the previous movements to the current movements that are taking longer to develop. You will see soon enough when you shake it like a Polaroid picture!

Fair enough.

I think that the halvening (supply reduction) remains the primary driver of price over the long term. I also think that the longening (increase in Bitcoin price cycle time) is inconsistent with the halvening being fixed 4 year periods, more or less.

In other words I do not believe in the longening and think it is just an artifact of historic price battles.

We shall see soon enough whether I am wrong and the longening is a thing. I would say that the longening is a thing if the price is still doing poorly, at or below this level in December.

A little bit of a strange speculative indicator that you raise here, namely "longening", and surely a long amount of history of several more cycles would likely be needed to determine with any kind of certainty whether a "longening" is actually happening. I doubt that you would be able to determine such a phenomena from this exact cycle, even though it is not a bad talking point.

Regarding the halvening, the percentage of its affect in respect to BTC supply is certainly a less and less proportion of the bitcoin, so it will seem to have diminishing importance in the future, even though I would agree with you that today, that halvening plays a considerable role today, and perhaps bordering on a "primary driver" role as you assert.

To clarify, I am saying there is insufficient evidence for a longening.

I think we are in agreement?

I understood your asserting about the insufficient evidence of a longening (based on the likely ongoing impact of the 4 year forks). I was making some additional points to attempt to muddy the water that in the end might not really matter. Whether we agree or not, based on the level of speculation here and the fact that I already made whatever point I was attempting to make, I am ready to move on.