Quote from: Surawit on September 01, 2011, 06:14:12 PM

Quote from: defxor on September 01, 2011, 06:05:16 PM

... and there's no support for the hypothesis that anyone has ever beaten the market trying to do that. That's the whole point. A lot of traders claim they do, but every time (plenty) anyone has looked into this it turns out that there's no predictive ability involved and the number of traders who beat the market is the same as is predicted by chance alone.

If you're really interested there's a lot of literature on the subject available. Taleb's "Fooled by randomness" is a great start.

This is a ridiculous claim. I make thousands of dollars EVERY WEEK simply by playing the stock market, not to mention the fortune I will make on bitcoin. I'm obviously not going to disclose my methods ( Wink

), but I can assure you that it has nothing to do with "random chance". Go into any bookshop and you wil find many books on how to invest... I myself am thinking of writing one. Why would there be so many books on this topic it if it wasn't possible?

There are two sorts of people... Smart guys, who know the system after years of study. And then there's the primitive guys that don't quite follow what's going on. They look at the economy, but it is too complicated for them, so they just think everything happens randomly...

There are millions of books on god, on how to beat the odds at the casino, on astrology and on any number of things for which there is no evidence.

Once again, what defxor is saying is that all those thousands of dollars you make EVERY WEEK are precisely in line with what would be expected out of a universe of traders all trying to make money.

Wall, meet head... head, meet wall.