Quote from: Protagonus on February 07, 2014, 01:23:25 AM

Quote from: lemfuture on February 07, 2014, 01:09:37 AM

Quote from: Protagonus on February 07, 2014, 01:05:47 AM

Quote from: lemfuture on February 07, 2014, 12:24:30 AM

Quote from: funsponge on February 06, 2014, 11:00:12 PM

WHY WOULD YOU SELL ON THE FIRST DAY?? UTC GOING TO $2

how you know?

One way would be to compare parities (not party Grin

) with a similar established coin

LTC - 84m coin, 2:30 sec blocks, 50 coins, hashing factor Scrypt 1, current price $20.00 +/-
UTC- 100m coin, :30 sec blocks, 50 coins, hashing factor Scrypt Jane 0.75 +/-, current price $0.35 +/-,

So, (1.19 more coins 5 times faster blocks 1 same reward 0.75 hash factor) current LTC price <=> parity of $4.48 for UTC (current price)
(1.19x5x1x0.75)/20=4.48

LTC peak of 50.00 +/- would approximate to a UTC parity value of; $11.20 for UTC
(1.19x5x1x0.75)/50=11.20

If we are to assume acceptance of the coin UTC; then $4.48 is entirely possible with LTC in 20 range. If we are to assume LTC goes up (which is to assume BTC will go up); then we can actually exceed Bumfaces' stated $10.00 target. His target is not unrealistic in any way. Obviously UTC, still very new and would need some time to reach parity price; so I'm not saying $4.48 UTC tomorrow or anything.

time will tell

good math. though it doesnt apply in market, especially lots of new coins with unique features are popping out

Satoshi may have it explained it best a while ago;

Quote from: satoshi on February 21, 2010, 05:44:24 AM

Excellent analysis, xc.

A rational market price for something that is expected to increase in value will already reflect the present value of the expected future increases. In your head, you do a probability estimate balancing the odds that it keeps increasing.

In the absence of a market to establish the price, NewLibertyStandard's estimate based on production cost is a good guess and a helpful service (thanks). The price of any commodity tends to gravitate toward the production cost. If the price is below cost, then production slows down. If the price is above cost, profit can be made by generating and selling more. At the same time, the increased production would increase the difficulty, pushing the cost of generating towards the price.

In later years, when new coin generation is a small percentage of the existing supply, market price will dictate the cost of production more than the other way around.

At the moment, generation effort is rapidly increasing, suggesting people are estimating the present value to be higher than the current cost of production.

All of these new altcoins follow this "absence of market" stage and hence "The price of any commodity tends to gravitate toward the production cost. If the price is below cost, then production slows down."
Whereas BTC, LTC and a couple others have reached the "later years" period. With all the altcoins, you see many perpetually stuck in the early production cost / value stage and never get to a market driven stage. This is due, in part, to greedy devs and miners looking only at daily returns.

I do believe the parties involved with UTC plan to reach the market driven stage; as well, POS helps incentivize reaching the market stage too.

i see, thanks for sharing a good insight