Quote from: djm34 on February 07, 2014, 02:24:27 AM

Quote from: genoys on February 07, 2014, 02:03:23 AM

Quote from: djm34 on February 07, 2014, 01:54:36 AM

Quote from: Grinners on February 07, 2014, 01:53:02 AM

Can any mathmagicians out there tell me the chance of getting a block in 24 hours at currently diffuculty with 18mh/s?

Or how to work this out. I take it difficulty is around 400 now? (Cant seem to type anything into cmd prompt while cuda is running

)

roughly: you take the net hashrate that you divide by your own hashrate then you multiply that by the time between two blocks
That should give you the time for you between two blocks (average time)

was unlucky because, it took me 2 to 3 hours to connect the wallet. But so far I have been able to get 2...

So this would be 63.029.672.023 / 125.000 * 30 = 15.127.121,28552 seconds or 4.202 hours !! Really ?!? It's 175 days ! Shocked

actually 63etc... is in hashes/sec and 125000 is in khash/s

Odds of finding any particular block
125000000 / 63029672023 = 0.00198319293

The odds that you won't find any particular block.
1 - 0.00198319293 = 0.99801680707

The odds that you won't find a single block out of 2880 blocks. (2880 = 24 * 60 * 60 / 30 i.e. number of blocks per day)
0.99801680707^2880 = 0.00328868748

Odds of finding a block in 24 hours.
1 - 0.00328868748 = 0.99671131252 or

99.67% chance of finding a block in 24 hours.
94% in 12 hours.
76% in 6 hours.
51% in 3 hours, etc.