Quote from: rpietila, the Vassal of the Mighty Goat on February 07, 2014, 09:01:20 AM

Quote from: nanobrain on February 07, 2014, 07:41:45 AM

Wow, I checked in to see what the great, cigar-smoking brains were thinking and what a potential floor for this correction may be: I find some meta-discussion about forums and that some VIP forum has been set up. No riff-raff.

"Being a millionaire is not required" - hilarious Cheesy

I take the stance of Marx (Groucho not Karl) with regard to clubs.

Madam,

Why is your tongue so sharp?

Concerning the correction - I had some bids in the 600-700 area (most of) which were fulfilled. This was a small short-term gain after selling at ~800 when that level started to feel shaky 1-2 weeks ago.

This is an excellent setup for the "final capitulation", the bottom of which can be anywhere significantly below the current price of $664 and the exponential trend which is today at $648. Around $400 is my guess. I now put the chances of going lower at above 50%. Long time ago I played with the possible dates and found that Feb 14 is a good candidate for being the low point. Any time until end of March is possible though.

Mt.Gox may blow up and could catalyze further crashes. A persistent downward trend also suppresses new investment. It is just the way the market goes - in waves. The good thing is that when we see the bottom, there is no more downside left, it is all UP, UP, UP.

TL;DR: I think the confidence is now decisively shaken based on the price action alone, which means that trend is down until exhaustion.

Sir,
Hell hath no fury etc and I'm still forgiving you for ignoring my PM last year. Wink

But I think its a shame you, Goat, Aminorex and the rest feel you can't co-exist with the rest of us. This is a self-modded thread - you should mod it and mould it to what you want - I'm sure people could live with that.

Considering much of the BTC idealism around crypto making the world a better and more egalitarian place has already been sacrificed on the alter of consumerism/greed, your move smacks of elitism. There is also the evolutionary psychology aspect: closed environments tend to lead to closed minds. And to be frank, I don't like cliques (they tend to attract fools, don't you think?).

As much as I give you a hard-time occasionally I enjoy your posts, as I do the others mentioned above (although on reflection, most of Goat's posts are CCMF, pix of his Lambo and tales of hookers and blow). The folks who annoy you now will soon pass by, that's the nature of forums, but new users who you appreciate will also join.

SO, about that floor.

I'm not sure about 'capitulation': I wonder if the medium and processes used by BTC (ie the internet, immediacy etc) are modifying people's investment behaviours, so the former paradigms and expectations of market behaviour are changing (much like FB has changed relationship behavioural patterns).

Anyway, thanks for your response re. the floor - the St Valentine's Day massacre? - we'll see.