Looks like Batch 1 is delayed till May now. :|
There goes any chance of ROI via pooled mining. What do you guys think the chance will be to solo mine and nab at least one block in May? Considering Cointerra is shipping, difficulty may be greater than previous predictions no?
Zero. You will need around 100th to get a single block per month
Well, it is better than zero to find a block solo mining with less. Otherwise pools wouldn't pay anything for your contribution. The easiest rule of thumb is: How long would it take to earn 25BTC while pool mining? That is approximately how long it would take to find a block solo at neutral luck.
With difficulty increases it will just become more and more unlikely you generate a block. You will need at least 100th as to generate a block solomining. It is better to mine on a pool and get paid now rather than maybe later. Chances are you will solomine for 2 months and never find a block and have hardware that will by then be impossible to generate a block with all the next gen hardware to be released.
I'd just like to draw your attention to bitparking where a ~100GHs miner just solved a block for the pool. The "impossible" happened not once but twice - once in January and once in February. If you flip a penny 3 times and get heads 3 times in a row, what are the odds of getting heads on the 4th flip? If you have to think about this one, you are statistically confused.
What appears to have happened here is unlikely, but not impossible. All you need in order generate a block is one hash. It just needs to be the right one. Anyone with any amount of hashing power has some non-zero chance to generate a block.