Quote from: fearisfearless on February 08, 2014, 04:25:14 AM

Quote from: atheistftwins on February 08, 2014, 04:10:34 AM

Quote from: topdude on February 08, 2014, 12:08:18 AM

Quote from: atheistftwins on February 07, 2014, 11:55:13 PM

Man I hate repeating myself. Do the math. I have shown in previous posts if topcoin has the market cap of DOGE at 1 coin per block it can only sustain 800kh/s. Anyone can 51% it if they wanted

Its not really about the market cap in this situation, because the amount of new coins that will be getting minted is almost none.

Also this is a experimental coin to see what really will happen. Most cryptos eventually will be reduced to 1 or less. We are just speeding up the process.

My personal view is that it will be fine, and the price will go up enough to still give a return to those who remain mining.

The market cap is vital cause it is a determination of how much supply exists. I already explained this in a previous post, supply is not just how much is produced, it's how much exists in the MARKET. This is not food products or electronics. Coins in existence do not perish. Mined supply going down doesn't matter much if there's already a certain amount in the market.

Look, anyone who's taken econ 101 will know how this plays out without some sort of change (be it different bonus structures or a change in the smallest block awards). If you guys continue to be stubborn that's fine. I'll just sell now and buy back when it goes down to 1-2 satoshi and you guys realize you need to make the changes. See you at the bottom!

Sorry that I did not see any of your previous post, but what is your stance? That the coin will die if the Dev does not change the reward from 1 coin per block? Sell now and buy back @ 1 - 2 sat? What then? Hold until the price rises?

I'm going to copy paste what I've written and the math I used:

What makes a coin valuable? Supply and demand. How much supply is there already of TOP? Just over 9 billion. How much demand is there for TOP? Not particularly much right now. This isn't food or even electronics. When coins are produced, they generally stay forever. Sure a small amount gets lost from people who lost their wallets etc, but it's not that significant a quantity. Functionally, coins stay forever. What does this mean for TOP? It means that it doesn't particularly matter that it will be really hard to mine more later, there's already so much that the supply is extremely large. In fact, we are already basically at the point that mining barely matters at all. By the next halving, it will be practically pointless to mine without an extreme hash drop.

So why is this unique for TOP? Because it reaches max supply quickly, and effectively stabilizes at that supply. The real question is will demand rise? Because of the stability of supply for TOP, any demand increases will not be diluted by inflation, what you see is effectively what you get in terms of TOP, it's very nature is deflationary if you get in past a certain point. Does price HAVE to rise? Not at all, demand could drop and we could see prices fall to 1 satoshi even or worthless (this will likely happen if hash rate goes too far down, people will have less faith in the security of the coin since 51% attacks will be easier). Could it rise? Sure, if demand rises then prices will go up proportional to demand, since there's no inflationary pressure.

The point is, TOP is designed so that if it gets a lot of hype, prices will rise very quickly. If there is no hype, it will likely die just as quickly because the hash rate will drop below a point where anybody is willing to trust the coin anymore. Effectively, in 1 week we will know what will happen to TOP.

I actually have a huge problem with one of the designs of top. The drop to 1 coin/block makes it so that it's almost guarranteed to die in 2 months time. Lets take a look at what miners expect in a coin to keep mining it:

In general, you are looking at a minimum of $40/day for a 5Mh/S rig. (I'm being conservative, plenty of coins give more than this, but it's what is the reasonable minimum).

So when TOP goes down to 1 coin/block, it generates 1440 coins per day. Lets say we want a network hash of 200Mh/S in order to stay at a level where the coin is still trustworthy (even though that's still quite risky). If that's the case, then 5/200 or 1/40 of 1440 must be worth $40 for people to mine. So each coin will have to be worth $0.9.

Is this possible? No way in hell. That would put the market cap of TOP at 10 Billion USD. Unless top becomes as powerful as bitcoin, it will never reach that price.

Lets look at it from a different angle. What if TOP reaches the market cap of DOGE at $50 million. Then each TOP will be worth roughly 0.45 cents. In this case, all the TOP generated per day at 1 coin/block will be worth about $6.5. That means the network hash IN THE EVENT that TOP gets to be as popular as DOGE, is going to be at most 800Kh/S, which is obviously disasterous.

Both of these point to the same conclusion. In a couple more block halvings, what we will see is that the dev will choose to hard fork the coin to fix this issue. The current system is a death sentence for the coin no matter what happens.

I think this coin can survive and has a chance to do really well (That's why I hold the coin myself). But crypto requires a network to survive and this coin was built to fail if you keep the 1 coin minimum.

I did the math already, to retain a decent number of miners, you have to have rewards be no less than the equivalent of 10,000 coins per block. It can be through bonuses, or transaction fees or whatever. Point is, that's how much would keep enough miners in the game to prevent a 51% attack.