Bikefront

Can you post the private blog on 19 March US share market. I think this is an important message for discussion .this.

Quote from: bikefront on March 20, 2019, 03:26:31 AM

Quote from: MA_talk on March 19, 2019, 03:18:37 PM

Quote from: bikefront on March 19, 2019, 03:13:47 AM

Quote from: dow_wizard on March 19, 2019, 12:06:52 AM

Nigel Farage to Address the WEC in Rome May 3rd & 4th

That is a big deal. It suggests that MA is indeed very-well-connected and internationally known. Subscriptions from Europeans will skyrocket.

Interesting. It would not surprise me. And MA, although there are some analysts that say the same thing Armstrong does, it isn't always the case and having read many of his viewpoints as well as history articles, I can say that I've never come across anyone else who can do the same. His analysis of inflation, rates, and so on are different, possibly unique, founded on a solid basis, and I do indeed believe some of his work should be in economic textbooks and taught internationally.

Anyone know what kind of turning point/price Armstrong thinks we can go to make a high into a downturn? Although he isn't always 100%, he has called multiple corrections accurately, I can attest to that. Just out of curiosity though.

Also, didn't Armstrong call for a high in real estate? I see IYR already made new highs recently. Perhaps it depends on the specific markets, as he did say that too. Also real vs nominal terms. I'm not trading it either way.

Bikefront, I agree with most of what you said including:
some of his work should be in economic textbooks, and
he is well-connected.

BUT that does NOT change anything on all of his past "forecast" failures, or the very strong possibilities that he has NO real AI that has any forecasting accuracy, but some rudimentary program that spits out meaningless sentences given some recent market history/chart.

Don't forget what all subscribers and what we all want here: ACCURATE and unambiguous FORECAST.

I have always agreed that Armstrong has really good economic insights, and that he is very likely a really good programmer and trader, and that he is very smart, and possibly well-connected.

But using those to argue that his forecasts "may" be good, is similar to that you have just puked from poisoned food, but you still argue that because the restaurant is located at the best district, and at the city which is most famous for best food, that the poisoned food is just an illusion. That's just not what we want to find out here , whether "the city is most famous for best food".

Look at the FACTS, and focus on the most important question.

Also, why does Armstrong ever need to make up readers' comments? Why such a person likes him has any needs for that? Some detective thinking is required. You won't find out the real truth, if you don't check the tiniest inconsistency. And unfortunately for him, 8.6 can never be made to equal to 8.615, despite his repeated claims that his ECM is accurate "down to the day".

What I don't understand is why he has cycles down to the day, and how. I can totally buy the idea that based on historical inflation/deflation rates, interest, gold, etc correlating in a particular way since ancient times around the world from different markets will also be the same in the present day, and in the future. And this information can be used by a computer to organize and correlate them, and so on. But these records of coins and tablets of grain prices and such are not enough to pick out things to the daily level. Yearly okay, monthly would be tough, weekly is a real stretch, and then daily? I can only suppose that would be based on Socrates' information from recent times, as there is incomplete information of the ancient past. Perhaps extrapolating and 'averaging out' incomplete information could be what he is doing but that wouldn't be so accurate consistently. If only he would say when he is wrong, roll out his research, and maybe even make it crowdsourced, and bring it out to the world. I can understand the Reversals- they seem to work most of the time (I did not do a thorough test on this) but it still doesn't explain the cyclical timing attempts. I wouldn't be surprised if the CIA tried to steal it-they did do ESP research as well as various other arcane phenomena.

Socrates does have many cycle readings on many timeframes for a ton of markets, so there is for sure some kind of computer that does it- the question is, how good is this computer? I'd also like to see this language computer he had mentioned several times.

I do not have the Pro level but I am in contact with someone who does and although this person has not yet fully learned to use it, there are certain forecast setups that seem to do well (consistent profit). There is not a great enough sample size in the results yet, so we will just wait and see in the future how it goes.