Quote from: Jutarul on February 08, 2014, 11:46:43 PM

Quote from: jimmothy on February 08, 2014, 11:25:04 PM

Quote from: Melbustus on February 08, 2014, 10:54:26 PM

Quote from: Jutarul on February 08, 2014, 10:35:26 PM

b ) Submitted Questions:
1) What is the order of magnitude of 3rd generation chips ASICMiner anticipates to sell (total / first batch / first 3 months)?
re 1) Order of magnitude: Depending on fab capacity. Total target is 10k to 40k wafers, relying on competitors, Bitcoin price, and other factors. A wafer is rated at 40 TH/s.

Did I read that right? 10,000 - 40,000 wafers, at 40TH/s each, = 400 PH/s - 1600 PH/s total target gen3 capacity?

That number can't be right. Last estimate was 2-20ph.

Your estimate refers to the first batch. What is quoted is the expected overall production from gen3, which depends on the factors stated above. Obviously if bitcoin price collapses to $50, it doesn't make sense to produce lots of wavers and warehouse them.

If that's the overall expected production for gen3, then an obvious question arises. When is gen4 expected? This year? Next year? Never?

If it's this year, then those numbers seem highly suspect. If the answer is never, then those numbers are meaningless. I'd say gen4 won't be out for a year or two going by those numbers, which would see the chips become pretty weak again compared to the competition. Aren't AM supposed to be working on gen4 already though? In which case, surely it won't take a year or two to be released and therefore AM won't be putting out anywhere near 1600 Ph/s.

Basically, those numbers are completely meaningless without knowing the lifetime of gen3.