Quote from: smoothie on February 10, 2014, 01:21:44 AM

Quote from: Artlover on February 10, 2014, 01:16:46 AM

Quote from: Test User on February 08, 2014, 12:00:04 PM

Here's a possible explanation as to the "technical" issues that MtGox has been suffering.

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1x93tf/some_irc_chatter_about_what_is_going_on_at_mtgox/

In short, Mt Gox wrote their own custom wallet software, which only worked because of a bug in early versions of bitcoin. The bug was fixed in a recent release. This would cause transactions sent from Gox to fail.

A group of people, thinking that they were being helpful set up relay servers that would take the transactions from Gox, fix them to work around the bug, and then rebroadcast the fixed transactions. The transactions could reuse the same signature (as they were the same transaction), but would be allocated a new TxID.

A second bug in Gox's wallet meant that their wallet client only checked it's own TxIDs, and never scanned the blockchain for other TxIDs on its coins. As a result, it is possible that the wallet ran dry, but the actual wallet client didn't notice, and transactions would block because of attempted double-spend.

So if it's a general wallet issue, why are deposits still allowed?

What does this have to do with all the other issues. Like USD withdrawals not working for 8+ months and lost funds from other issues like crediting deposits before they cleared.

What does that have to do with all the new lost funds issues this excuse creates?

Where is their CEO?

Where is the money.

The last question is the big one. They claim they have it in cold storage across at least 6 different locations. Ok fine. So GO GET IT and do a wallet to wallet transfer so you can prove it to everyone via the block chain as they have willing done before when there were questions about their solvency, then put it back into cold storage. Is it that hard to go to these 6 places in question? Or are they still living in the 12th century over there and visiting the next village means loading up a caravan of horses for the 6 month trek across the mountains? No. Someone or a couple of people need to jump in their cars, drive across town, pull the BTC out of the vaults and show everyone they have it. They refuse to do it, instead spewing "Trust us!" Hahahahaha. Yeah, right. I haven't trusted you for the past 3 years, why in the hell would I start now!

It never ceases to amaze me just how many people are honestly willing to throw their heads in the sand and pretend like everything is under control. A playing card exchange that has been having legal and financial problems for a year now. USD withdrawals haven't been working right for 8+ months and had a manipulated exchange rate abnormally & unjustifiably higher then all the other exchanges. If that alone isn't enough to convince anyone to stay away, then you are fools.

Yet despite their long sorted history and on going troubles, people still keep trying to defend them, even as new problems keep appearing. And that is the fundamental problem with MtGox. Even if, by some chance, this is true, and this particular issue really is just a technical glitch, it's still just one of MANY problems to throw on the already heaping pile of problems they have/had. If your local fiat bank was having all these issues, you know damn well you wouldn't trust them or be making excuses for them. So why do it for MtGox?

Oh, I'm 100% sure their BTC withdrawals will be open Monday. They have been mining all weekend, so they can cover the smaller customers now. I'm also 100% sure those with large amounts will still be facing "technical glitches" when they to withdrawal, just as they have been for the past while now.

Bold portion is the best case scenario in my view. A run on their bitcoin wallet will happen if they ever open BTC withdrawals ever again. That in turn will raise the price on MTGOX and then those people will likely send it to another exchange and sell thus driving the price down.

Overall price is going down over the next 1-2 months. We may rally a bit due to influx of people wanting to withdrawal and some suckers on other exchanges may still follow MTGOX but in the end price is headed lower.

I'm a long term bull, but short-term bear currently.

Again I fully agree with smoothie, but I'm a bit worried these super whales on Btc-e will use any movement to manipulate the price in their favor in the meantime, meaning the downtrend might be broken by a few perhaps significant pumps, thus further delaying the overall downtrend a bit further. Btc will be fine in the long run, but short to mid-term down, or - if gox indeed fails - short term down significantly.