Quote from: cuqa on September 05, 2011, 03:17:42 PM

Quote from: farfiman on September 04, 2011, 11:37:08 AM

Because this pool has temporary bad luck , means its the best time to jump in

:facepalm:

Better don't start gambling. Lots of gamblers also have a feeling..

Quote from: farfiman on September 05, 2011, 06:55:44 AM

Well, Its not exactly Mathematically based... more a feeling...

Well, its exactly bullshit, so cant be mathmatically based ever.

Quote from: farfiman

BTC guild had a patch of very bad luck..close to -50% over a period of time.
I moved to them and had a nice amount of extra btc because of swing in the luck to the positive.

Good for you, but this could have happend if the pool had found 1000 blocks in 1000 shares before that too. Chance does not have a memory.

No , It doesnt... but ALL pools ( and hashers) COUNT on the fact that the luck will average out eventually.
If it wouldnt then No PPS pool would survive (unless they had perpetual good luck) and no hasher would stay in a PP pool that had only bad luck.

This is a "luck graph" of the 6 biggest pools http://l0ss.net/