.00000009279 = .000009279% chance I will flip at least 36 heads (i.e. trade positively at least 36/40 times)
Edit 2: You do realize that the chances of trading at 90% profit become less likely the more times I trade...right? I hope you weren't implying that my chances of doing this across 40 trials were good, were you?
Nah I wanted to see if you considered after-the-fact to be the same as before-the-fact, which you did. Even if we go by "approx" and "about" being at the top of your own estimation - your numbers show that if there are 11 million traders in the world one will indeed be so lucky by chance alone.
There aren't 11 million people trading bitcoins. And if there were, do you think it's really that likely that we happen to be talking to him/her?