Quote from: Strike Eagle 26 on April 18, 2019, 06:51:00 PM

Quote from: bikefront on April 18, 2019, 05:04:38 PM

For Panic Cycles, being a reversal or a large move means that opening a strangle should net profit pretty much every time, no? The reason is because if it is a reversal, you'll be able to catch the top or bottom to exceed the previous session timeframe, and if it is just a large move, it will exceed the expected move that is priced into an option's premium. My question is, should we EVER trade based on the timing model, or not? If so, when? Or should we trade ONLY on Reversals, and if so, when? For example, elected Reversals only, or against Reversals too sometimes? I'd just want to trade the types of trades that have 100% success rate, as Armstrong says never to anticipate, let the market show the way. I think only Major elected Reversals can do that.

Armstrong has explained this.
"You dont get time from the reversals, we are merging it with time from the standpoint of when they are elected.
The Reversals are definitive numbers, but they are separate and distinct from TIME. Reversals do not tell us WHEN they will be elected."

So you can simply wait for a given reversal to be elected without having to even watch the array since the purpose of The Forecast Array is to enable you to quickly see when the computer models are looking for ideal highs or lows in addition to important changes in trends and volatility.

Armstrong has said the arrays are not a 100%. But they are very close. And the turning points can take place on an intraday or closing basis.

If you want close to 100% certainty then yes only buy or sell when a reversal has actually been elected for the close.
Quote "Generally when a reversal point is elected but the price is substantially below or above the number, the market will retest the reversal before it resumes the indicated trend. Reversals that are elected by only a few ticks offer the best indication of immediate follow-through."

The reversals will always be the deciding factor not the array. The reversals can be used in isolation but certainly not the array.

But if you want the most precision then only trade singular markets
Quote
"The metals, currencies and bonds have a high degree of precision. Market movements will bounce precisely on these specific Reversal points. Stock indexes, on the other hand, will find that absolute precision is rare. Since the S&P is introducing a series of 500 variables into the equation, this tends to suggest that absolute precision begins to suffer with an increased number of variables"

In May it appears we have a significant turning point on the Dow and various other markets so if we test a weekly/monthly reversal most likely in the 24 000 zone you could easily trade the reversals in reverse and buy against those bearish reversals which will mean you are using both time and the price together with the next turning point being July which should produce the opposite event.

Yes, I remember this, but the thing is, there was a turning point in February around the 25100 mark where there was a Reversal and Armstrong said that a Weekly close over that number would be where he would be wrong. That is just a recent one but there are many other examples where the turning point did not generate a high or low on a closing or intraday basis. So to avoid those types of trades, it would be safer to avoid them, and only go for the 'conviction' trades where the number of possibilities are reduced to a single event. We need to find a way to reduce the number of possibilities that can be generated in order to reduce the chances of trades that could have went the other way. For example, if a turning point doesn't make a high or a low, we can't trade it.

I think currencies and commodities only in that case- Thekees went 7/7 on some setups and mentioned the currency trade for today, which is quite impressive by any standard. Those sorts of 'good' trades where the setups are not ambiguous and can only have 1 outcome of the possibilities that Socrates generates.