Quote from: organofcorti on February 11, 2014, 05:10:00 AM

Quote from: eoakland on February 11, 2014, 04:42:37 AM

Quote from: organofcorti on February 11, 2014, 04:18:25 AM

Quote from: Scyntech on February 11, 2014, 03:48:43 AM

seriously smart stuffs

I'm not really interested in kudos, I'm just keen for someone to try it and report back. I'm hoping that if a few regular posters learn how to do this it will help keep freak outs to a minimum.

Give it a try, Scyntech. If there's anything you didn't understand I'll explain it again. Anyone should be able to do this just by following the steps and using wolframalpha, but only if I explained it properly.

Organofcorti,

you do realize that to many the formula you speak of, and the terms you use are a foreign language right ? (me included) I took a look at it, but quickly turned away because it reminds me of something I would need a TI-83 calculator for =)

OK, thanks for the feedback. Here's a simplified version:

1. Got to http://mining.bitcoin.cz/stats/
2. Add up all the numbers in the "Total shares" column.
3. Follow each link under "Block #" to find the difficulty at which each block was solved. (For orphaned blocks, assume the same as the last difficulty). Add up all the difficulties from each block.
4. Divide the result of step 2 by the result of step 3. Call this number "X"
5. Go to http://www.wolframalpha.com/
6. In the text box, enter the following, substituting your value for X:

erlang distribution Pr(x <= X) , k=20, lambda=20

So if you calculated X as 1.1, you'd enter:

erlang distribution Pr(x <= 1.1) , k=20, lambda=20

We use k=20 and lambda=20 since there are twenty blocks on the basic stats page. If you were to use one hundred blocks, change the values to k=100 and lambda=100.

I think if you follow that step by step you should be fine. After that you just need to understand the results, but I'll help you with that once you get this part done.

Thanks for the Formula's and explanation. I for one will try this. Probably not until the weekend, But I will get back to you with my results.