Quote from: organofcorti on February 11, 2014, 09:49:07 PM

Quote from: PostMixer on February 11, 2014, 06:48:00 PM

Quote from: organofcorti on February 11, 2014, 09:29:16 AM

Quote from: PostMixer on February 11, 2014, 06:36:09 AM

...........

Thanks for the Formula's and explanation. I for one will try this. Probably not until the weekend, But I will get back to you with my results.

I'll be interested to see how you go. Keep us posted?

OK so here is what I got:

Round 21628 Thru 21657 = 30 Rounds

Total Shares = 78149042396

All blocks solved at Difficulty - 2,621,404,453.06

2,621,404,453.06 * 30 = 78,642,133,591.8

So Total Shares - 78149042396/78,642,133,591.8 (Difficulty * 30) = x

x = .993729936189684

k=30, lambda=30, x=.993729936189684

RESULT = .5105800139110

OK! Now it's up to you to tell me/us what this number means Huh

Thanks

The RESULT is the Erlang distribution cumulative distribution function. From Wikipedia, the CDF "is the probability of observing a test statistic at least as extreme as the one observed".

In this case results refer to the lower tail probability, so given a value of 0.5105 this means that there is a probability of 0.5105 of observing actual shares/expected shares of 0.9937 or less.

In other words: If you did the same thing for one hundred other group of 30 blocks, you'd get better luck 51.05% of the time (and worse luck 49.95% of the time).

So the 30 blocks that you tested were very very close to perfectly neutral luck.

Well again Organofcorti, thank you for that! It's the most tangible explanation I have seen to date regarding the pool "luck". I hope others grasp this as well and realize that things seem pretty neutral. I know it sucks to have these LONG blocks, but I do think it's right in line with the "luck" of this pool overtime. Translation, I don't think there is any monkey business going on behind the curtain Grin