Quote from: vokain on February 12, 2014, 12:04:45 AM

you speak with such a definiteness mat Cheesy

you seem so sure [/socratic quip]

Come on, I did start with a 'What If'.

But I will come clean, or perhaps I dont really need to come clean as I have alluded to it many times in the past; but I have this subconscious fear that pops up to haunt me every now and then that Bitcoin is going to get fucking hammered. Perhaps even killed. This more than anything else started me off on my shorting escapade, at least until I started getting the subconscious fear that I would never see my entire ball of 20K USD capital again. This fear seemed to be tied up with Bitfinex. I pulled my funds off Bitfinex a few days before that 10,000 USD Bitcoin hack attack. Since I have pulled my funds from Bitfinex, I no longer have the subconscious irrational fear of my capital disappearing down a black hole, but this has meant no more shorting for me, despite some glaring opportunities to capitalise in doing so (such as right now at $680). I still have 10K USD on Bitstamp and I still have these pangs of extreme Bitcoin fears that come out of no place, even though I have no Bitcoin position (I get them much worse and more vivid whenever I am long Bitcoin). The same ones that I have been having well in advance of all this DDOS and transaction protocol attack shit, which has only come to light in the past couple of days, with this BitcoinSteve character appearing out of knowhere on the eve of the mayhem, declaring pending mayhem and asking for tuppeny ha'penny Bitcoin donations in exchange for 'insider info' in the style of a wild west or even a modern day snake oil selling fear mongering doom porn guru (Lindsay Williams springs to mind)......only for events to transpire that make BitcoinSteve appear more like a prophet than the two-bit fear mongering conman, that I immediately took him to be.

I openly disclose the prevailing mental forces that have been driving my bearish stance since the eve of the December crashes. This will seem like nothing but superstition to most people and perhaps it is, but is superstition that has served me very well so far, both in terms of avoiding being a Bitcoin bag-hodler and getting me into the market on a speculative basis in the first place.

Bitcoin now seems to be entering a stage of high uncertainty, during a clear bear phase of the market. With this in mind, I am preparing myself to accept that perhaps my subconscious mind is smarter than my conscious mind. I am abandoning any attempts at deploying my TA 101 skills to turn a buck on Bitcoin, such as playing the rather obvious $380 support. I shall now be sitting right out on the sidelines either until Bitcoin proves it has overcome the recent technological uncertainties and most importantly, confirms that the bottom is in and the trend is reversing; or until some of my outrageously low buy-in levels have been triggered on Bitstamp due to everyone's worst fears coming to be realised, and Bitcoin finding itself standing at death's door.

The outcomes will be:

I miss the bottom and some good volatile trading opportunities in between, but get in as trend reversal is confirmed (most likely)
Panic and fear overcomes market and Bitcoin crashes to the point of death or novelty posterity significance, in which case I lose all my chips (entirely possible)
Panic and fear overcomes market and Bitcoin crashes to the point of death, at which point big Wall St money swoops in and buys it up at pennies on the dollar, in which case I cash in big time...providing my buy-ins are allowed to be triggered by the corrupt system, and/or Bitstamp doesn't go the same way as many Bitcoin exchanges before it (stranger things will have happened)