Quote from: MatTheCat on February 12, 2014, 01:20:43 AM

Quote from: vokain on February 12, 2014, 01:08:18 AM

they say bitcoin is a good investment because it has binary outcomes, yeah, but your second two points don't make sense to me. Panic and fear do not cause Bitcoin to "crash to death". A fundamental and irreparable point of failure will cause bitcoin to "crash to death". We don't have that. The bears that are waiting, and trust me, they're there on the sidelines and will be the source of the impetus up when the trend is confirmed to reverse, will prevent those last two scenarios. so dreary mat!!

On the second December crash, I was assured by several Bitcoin Nutters that my $400 - $500 buy ins could never happen, as there were far too many people queueing up to buy in at price levels way above this. I was also assured that even $500-$600 was an out and out impossibility. Unfortunately for me, I moved my buy-ins up to the $500 - $600 range, and then made the mistake of babysitting my buy-ins on the bounce from $380, totally losing my nerve at a shaky pennant at $490. This caused much butthurt resulting in me sitting out at least half of a rather obvious 'market memory' recovery in complete disgust (I hate losing). Much regrets, won't ever be repeating this action.

Yeah...all the bears are waiting to buy-in.....and how many of them have reported being frozen with fear during the $100 BTC-e/Bitfinex crash and sitting the whole thing out? Quite a few from what I have seen. We all dream about $300, $200, $100 and double digit coins, but when/if the moment of truth approaches, then I will guarantee that mass psychology will change.....especially if the crash is accompanied by FUD asserting the the Bitcoin protocol has been hacked/broken.

I take a lot from my dreams and other subconscious pangs that I get. I never however, take anything 'literal' from them. If I dream about Bitcoin going down under $100, which I have done several times way back in December, I don't assume that my subconscious knows that Bitcoin is going under $100, but rather take it as a symbolic indicator. Last thing I will say is that nearly all my most predictive Bitcoin manoeuvres have come from the subconscious mind....the annoying thing is, is that I nearly always need to be standing on the wrong side of the trade to get them in the first place and of course, I can't rely on getting them at all. Often I wake up from my sleep with dreams when the Bitcoin market is moving, but just as often I don't.

Mat, now what did we tell you about trading? Wink

It'll do your head in and one year from now, you'll be poorer than the rest of us hodlers.