Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
Low probability IMV .
"Probability"? Thanks for reminding:
A wild guess: today is the last day to get bitcoin below $3900.
Yes. The odds of the truth of that assertion are in the less than 25% arena.
So far so good:
Maybe the odds of going below $3,900 again became slightly better than what they were on March 25, but they have not changed by a lot.. I would not even put them above 45% and that 45% is a bit charitable. You may end up being correct, regarding your guess, but I am not sure what that would be saying, besides you having had gotten lucky in your guess. Do you find that valuable in how you live your life? I certainly try to minimize gambling and guessing in how I live my life, but surely once in a while it is fun.. but that is it.. merely fun rather than something to attach much if any significance.
What are the odds of going below $3900 (again) now, @JJG?
NO matter what we should be preparing for both up and down, if you don't want to end up being disappointed, even if your "never below $3,900 again" dart-throwing sorcery-wannabe pronouncement ends up coming true. 
Well, let's just hope that it does come true!
Hey @JJG! Just wondering, what are the odds of going below $3900 (again) now?
Hahahahaha!!!!
You seem to be in a kind of gloating posture....
Hopefully, you are not trying to convert me into a kind of failed sorcerer because I never claim to know shit - except that I am frequently attacking and criticizing folks (moreso bears than bulls) who attempt to assign way too much certainty to any price events.... and it does not make them any more correct in their initial prediction, merely because they happened to guess correctly.
So, yeah, you are correct to point out that BTC prices have moved a considerable distance from $3,900 and presumptively pointed out that the odds have likely gotten greater, than previously, that we will not go below $3,900 ever, ever again.
The odds of going below $3,900 is likely similar to whether the bottom is "in" or not.. maybe slightly higher odds for going below $3,900 than if the bottom is in at $3,122...
Another question is whether we are going to test our support at the $4,200 break out levels. So if testing the bottom of $3,122 might be as high as 46%... then going below $3,900 might be in the 47% arena, and testing $4,200 would be in the 48-49% arena. So currently breaking below $5k seems to be in the 50/50 area.
Those are my tentative and conservative assignments of probability, and I deny any soothsayer qualities, while admit to feel it is a kind of duty of mine to bash those who proclaim soothsayer qualities, even though I am inclined to think that currently, the odds for UP seem to be greater than odds for down, and it would be quite a dramatic change of events (and maybe even categorized as a manipulated bull trap) to even get down to below $3,900 - which would be a greater than 51% price correction (from our current local top of $7585).