Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
Hey @JJG! Just wondering, what are the odds of going below $3900 (again) now?
Hahahahaha!!!!
You seem to be in a kind of gloating posture....
Nah, not at this stage. I'll surely be in one "after" (and iff before testing $3900 again) we break into a new ATH!
So, yeah, you are correct to point out that BTC prices have moved a considerable distance from $3,900 and presumptively pointed out that the odds have likely gotten greater, than previously, that we will not go below $3,900 ever, ever again.
The odds of going below $3,900 is likely similar to whether the bottom is "in" or not.. maybe slightly higher odds for going below $3,900 than if the bottom is in at $3,122...
Another question is whether we are going to test our support at the $4,200 break out levels. So if testing the bottom of $3,122 might be as high as 46%... then going below $3,900 might be in the 47% arena, and testing $4,200 would be in the 48-49% arena. So currently breaking below $5k seems to be in the 50/50 area.
The odds of going below $3,900 is likely similar to whether the bottom is "in" or not.. maybe slightly higher odds for going below $3,900 than if the bottom is in at $3,122...
Another question is whether we are going to test our support at the $4,200 break out levels. So if testing the bottom of $3,122 might be as high as 46%... then going below $3,900 might be in the 47% arena, and testing $4,200 would be in the 48-49% arena. So currently breaking below $5k seems to be in the 50/50 area.
Honestly, I'm thinking more about the test of $5800 support right now, as it comes way before $4200. Don't forget, we never tested the "major level" of $3000 again after breaking it in 2017 bull run; I know that we can't compare the current mini-run to the last bull run just about yet, as the overall momentum and situation of that run is incomparable to the current run, but still, never forget, it's bitcoin and sh!t can happen any day.
P.S. take my last sMerit!
Let's worry (a bit) about this gap right now:
CME bitcoin futures open today Sunday 17:00 CT.