Quote from: DPoS on February 12, 2014, 04:21:12 PM

Quote from: Armis on February 12, 2014, 04:08:50 PM

A pure chartist will tell you that based on the charts the true high value of btc is about $400, and that anything above that is ridiculous speculation. But if you look at all of the negative ancillary forces pressuring the CC, IMO it's true value is about $1000 and anything under that is a bargain.

Btc's biggest harm is being caused internally by hacker, scammers, bad cus svc, and lack of self-regulation. I think if you remove the hype, defamation, and increase market security the value will see $1200 again this year. But since the world loves it's scary, wild, and crazy rides my bet is hype and defamation will be the rule resulting in your $500 to $1400 cycles.

just look at it with inflows and outflows... that late fall runup was a perfect storm of China, SR going down & Coinbase allowing 10BTC instant payments.. and the climate still had USD $$$ flows into BTCe & Gox pretty easily

then what happened?? China got prudish.. Coinbase crimped instants by 90%.. AML/KYC enforced everywhere which slammed the door on BTCe & Gox while lots of merchants cropped up to take your bitcoins (Overstock/TigerDirect)

Anyone who thinks this has not been the driving factor of price is on the wrong side of the trade

Until there are 10x more Coinbases to bring back that level of instant inflow plus more exchanges that can take USD $$ without too much hassle then you can get $1000 again

I am not even sure Wall Street can prop up the price until the instant flows are back to last fall levels

I appreciate that

Notwithstanding, Coinbase is not a large enough player in the cryptocurrency economy to move the CC market in a meaningful way, like a Mt Gox, Bitstamp, BTC-e, or the like can.

Coinbase certainly could have grown mega large but they clearly deliberately decided to stay clear of the trouble that went with the power position. Look at campbx the market killed them, they too could have stayed in, cleaned up their act, and grow magnificently but they decided it wasn't worth the trouble.

Mt Gox is getting hit from every angle: hackers, customers, and govt, the ONLY things keeping them in it is the massive power trip and the ocean of cash.

As for the CC industry, we (USA) are still not a major player yet, I agree 100% that we need many more Coinbase+ models to emerge.