Quote from: trulycoined on May 18, 2019, 06:48:53 PM

I have recently read another very interesting book - written by a former employee of Princeton Economic Institute just before MA was thrown into jail.

It is called Not On My Grandfather's Wallstreet, though the book isn't exclusively about MA. It does have many chapters about his run ins with MA, working with him, and then meeting him soon after his release from prison.

That person (who uses a pseudonym) is Barclay Leib, who from what i can tell is a professional and successful trader, who still works in trading to this day. Meanwhile, MA appears to have no real trading history, at least since he left jail. I wonder if he was banned from trading as part of a deal to release him? That would explain the (possible) snake oil salesman selling of events and subscriptions. Nice earner for him...

Lieb is interesting in what he talks about, I will cover that below. He also talks about MA's early life where he used to work for government analysing rockets. He then moved into financial consulting having been so bored working for government, he started reading extensively into history and economic cycles. Ironic that MA explains A students work for C students, and B students work for government.

It seems he was always a B student, not least with no formal education or qualifications in either economics or trading. That I do find interesting as you would never think that. Granted pieces of paper are just that, but then by that same argument, if MA was so incredible, why hasn't he dedicated himself to his art and become a PhD at the very least? It does reduce his credibility.

In the book, MA is called "Marty Amwell" and Armstrong Economics is referred to as "Amwell Economics".

It does not paint a particularly rosy picture of MA and at the time (1999) when the sh*t was hitting the fan. Essentially, ML was using his consulting firm to buy up tobashi transactions among major Japanese companies, who were suffering serious investment/pensions losses. Referenced in the book (but not named) is Naoki Kumagai who was an MA client who he met at his Tokyo WEC event. This guy was later charged with fraud and jailed for 8 years.

The FBI investigation into MA was actually started by the Japanese financial regulators. BL asked MA before he was arrested if he had made any losses, where he was trading through (Edmond J.) Safra Bank. He told BL, something in the region of $400m had been lost.

Fast forward to MA's release from jail and he agreed to meet BL, who explained he was left "disgusted" that MA now denied he had made any losses or had even done anything wrong. MA explained it was Safra who stole the money.

BL explained that after getting out of jail, MA appeared a "complete mess" and his "sharp" mind was no more. He explains of the Armstrong Economics blog back in 2014/15 and how where before jail, MA's writings were on point, now it had turned into irreverent ramblings.

What is interesting though is BL never said the pi cycle was wrong. He actually does believe it exists, though requires further refining. He talks of double the 8.6 cycle (17 years) as major turning points, though his forecasts generally line up with what MA forecast. See some of his articles:
https://safehaven.com/article/248/measuring-financial-time-the-magic-of-pi
http://www.sandspring.com/articles/TechnicalAnalystMagazineJan2009.pdf

I still think MA may have uncovered an interesting theory on cycles that may well be true, however, since getting out of jail, I question whether:
He still trades anymore, not least as he seems very shady about his current trading (he may well be banned)
Socrates actually exists or is a ruse to cover up incriminating evidence that would jail him even longer re: the tobashi scam
His state of mind having been put in solitary for 5 years and almost killed by an inmate who battered his head with his own typewriter
His finances where, if you are entering your twilight years and need money, would the ethics of making money by lying override honesty?
His trading prowess where it may well be likely he made wrong bets on USD/JPY and lost HUNDREDS of millions - why didn't Socrates help him avoid this?

Barclay Leib does appear in his documentary 'The Forecaster': view here on Youtube (in German):https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yLCkRxrfo10

at 44mins - Leib alludes to the fact that he is not sure the story about Safra is real;'.. it could or could not be true..?'
at 1hr20mins - Leib confirms that on 24 Feb 2007 (remember Armstrong is in jail since 1999) - he shorts the market based on the Arrays - a Pi day - and lo and behold world markets tank, based on no news.. it made the '..hairs on the back of my neck stand on end..'