Quote from: Hyena on May 19, 2019, 09:29:47 PM

Oh this is you sgbett Cheesy

didn't know you still come to the speculation subforum here. I stopped posting here when segwit happened.

I was away for a while, I like to poke the (code)bear from time to time Wink

he's ever so worried!

This is the best place to find out what's going on in the noggins of BTC die hards.

UnDerDoG81 you seem more open to discussion so you might be interested in where I explained my thinking on that.

To recap, the bigger the market (cap/participant count) the longer the cycle takes to play out. I scaled time based on how long it took for the first bounce (about 2.8x longer) and projected the recoveries based on that.

To get a rough idea why I took this approach look at how quick the cycle happened in the run up to $32 and the grind down, compared to the run up to >$1000 and subsequent grind down. They all follow the same basic pattern.

I'm not doing TA i'm doing crowd/market psychology. You can see the same thing play out in countless alt coin charts. The price is the 'average' of sentiment, a larger crowd has much larger inertia with bigger moves, over longer time. That's my take anyway.

gentlamand - BTC @ $500 breaks all patterns, I can't see that unless something *real bad* happens. If it doeas, then whatever it is will probably be obvious in hindsight.