Quote from: rosousa on May 23, 2019, 11:26:37 AM

Quote from: psp777 on May 23, 2019, 05:00:37 AM

I have found the last couple of days' discussions very informative on here. A huge thank you to all that have shared. A few take aways for me at this point in no particular order:

1. GMW useless for trading
2. Arrays confusing as crap for everyone as sometimes they are 'right' sometimes they are dead wrong and sometimes what was to happen doesn't and is called a cycle inversion. Therefore unreliable for trading. More of a confirmation tool or a heads-up ...something may happen tool
3. Most important information for trading is the reversals
4. You can trade against the reversals long or short, but if elected the trade should be in the direction of the reversal with a tight stop above or below the reversal depending on the trade direction.
5. Daily reversals are mostly just noise, but at times have offered support and resistance levels
5. Weekly and monthly levels are more important.
6. WECs are overpriced and are a repeat of his blog posts
7. Private reports are overpriced history texts with little information offered for trading.
8. Armstrong does cover both sides in blog posts as he states if this then that, but this may happen too.
9. No individual on this forum can prove consistent profitability using Socrates
10. Socrates pro level is expensive and to add several individual equities is costly.
11. Recent and past private blog posts have been outright wrong with regard to timing calling temp tops/ bottoms, etc...
12. Socrates missed the up move from Jan to April - how? That was a massive move.

The list goes on....But I'll stop there for now. I have more questions than answers.

I have a video of a German guy explaining the reversal system form the VOD WEC a few years ago. Nothing special, most has been discussed here, but I will try to locate it. I do remember audience members asking ridiculous questions and not having clue about trading - as it appeared. It was once posted on the Vimeo site but I believe has been removed. I must have it on some drive somewhere.

What is frustrating to me is the concept of buying and selling against the reversals. If we look at the spread in the DOW right now there is about a 1400 point gap between weekly bullish and bearish reversals. This equates to a between 4.5-5% move.

5) Daily reversals aren´t noise, they´re useful to trading intraday/short-time frame and it just represent what market do in short-term, markets don´t trend 70% of the time and as you come down on your time frame, more sideways/trend less is the market action. But you can make money on sideways market, your approach have just be completely the opposite of any trend following system/rules.

11) that isn´t 100% true. To be fair, he call it both ways, so he´s always right. For trading, his blog posts have negative EV (expected value) as it just confuses you and take you away the confidence to make trading decisions, you just freeze and do nothing after your 1st misstep on the market.

12) Socrates don´t miss trends as it have trend following approach to markets. If you refer to stock market bounce since 26th December´18. Socrates started electing Daily bullish reversals in the end of December and Weekly reversals in Jan´19 month end elected Bullish Reversals on US stock market indexes (DOW, NASDAQ, SP500,...)

The major take away you missing on your review is that trading isn´t about forecasting or being right or wrong. Trading is about formulating the possible scenarios and trade in the direction of the most likely scenario to happen. Trade with the odds in your side, will make you $ over time.

Most people have unrealistic expectations about trading systems/ forecasting systems. A trading approach that identify markets trending and enter on the direction of the trend only have to be right around 30% of the trades to make $. Socrates have a trend following approach to markets, so we should expect something between 30-50% winning trades depending on time frame you´re trading. Most people following Martin Armstrong have a misconception about that key statistic, they believe there´s GOD and higher than GOD itself there´s Martin Armstrong Socrates which can forecast markets with something near 80-100% hit rate. That don´t exist in financial markets, unless you´re able to travel throw time!

5. Eh. The system I use is the same in trending or nontrending, but exit criteria is different. Even so, using the same criteria can work...I kept intraday longing many times during the October correction and came out profitable...

11. Calling it both ways is the same as being wrong.

12. Socrates may have been electing Reversals, as I know it did elect the 25100 bullish...problem is that Armstrong likes to shoehorn his 'objective cycle' stuff that ends up being wrong while the Reversals were correct, at least that time.

Etoimene, I took a look at Crude Oil, as I got an alert on it just today. 60.38 is what I have as the number we need to open under in order to break to the downside and become resistance.