Quote from: windjc on May 23, 2019, 09:03:31 PM

Quote from: STT on May 23, 2019, 08:52:06 PM

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The price is about $3k higher than it should be at this part of the cycle. We are already higher than what the December 2019 peak should be. Its all gravy.

The recovery from lows has been far faster this time, the only reasoning I think of why that happen is at the same time the similar kind of reversal to reasoning by the Federal reserve (last hard statement was December) in proposing a continual scheme of rising interest rates no matter what; but now seemingly being on a path to completely stop and probably lower rates if any weakness in the economy occurs.
Until the fiscal deficit and probably the trade deficit is closed and probably requiring a surplus, I see USD as weakening over years but the market doesn't immediately reflect that and its related to retention of dollar debt vs alternatives. When the ECB has such a weak policy itself and is also involved in QE, the EURO is unlikely to be much an alternative and the Euro bond market is taken up with ECB buying so far as I know. Japan again the market is saturated with new money via QE so again the currency is unlikely to be as strong as it should be vs the dollar. If there is currency weakness worldwide now and predicted ongoing, theres little to oppose BTC or any asset price especially if demand for that commodity is growing.

That big switch in sentiment on global reserve money might explain some of the reversal, I dont know if BTC price after that initial reaction then loses momentum and goes sideways after bouncing so high. I spotted this idea of a parabolic rise but a giant rise without pulling back I think is not as positive longterm for stability, I would not guess this happens so soon.

Right this moment I see the price as bouncing between two moving average in an increasingly tight range, it seems to be it will breakout but so far price moving downwards has not settled far for long before returning to a similar price under 8000

https://i.imgur.com/N4GfwVt.png

Guys this last bear market had ZERO bounces of significance. Bulls were dead for a year. So this bounce is not more than expected. In fact, ratio wise it is LESS than the bounce to $500 at the beginning of the last bull cycle. Plus we are now a year from halving.

For all we know this could be mid 2013 again. Too many people looking in the wrong places.

I think there is a whiff of 2013 between-the-peaks.

Using vague feely words is legitimate because the market landscape and participants have changed so much so quickly that I'm not sure we can rely on chart superimposition and fractal comparison as much as we can on more mature markets. There was very little leverage 7 years ago, no futures, no tail-wagging derivatives, far fewer professionals and I doubt any prop desks.

Bitcoin can get beaten up, either by the gox matching engine taking 30 minutes to execute a market order and so driving participants to cash, or by futures traders stepping in or deep pocketed shorters determined to get in position for the next run, but it can shoot up with a vengeance that trad markets or newcomers won't believe.

The way these dips are being bought is impressive. There's still people convinced they can buy in much cheaper, and I wouldn't be surprised if they're starting to worry. For all its 20k glory the last run did feel like it ended a little early (what can I say? to me it did) like Apr 13, and windy has a point.