Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Merits 1 from 1 user
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
d_eddie
on 10/06/2019, 15:52:49 UTC
⭐ Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
Weekly close looks very ugly and points to a trend reversal.

We might revisit 6k range in the coming weeks/months.

We might and we might not, lol.

Im more on the bearish side right now.

65% going to 6k vs 35% going to 9k.

Im looking for a short entry here.

You still bearish, criptix?

Do you still assign a 65% chance that we will reach $6k before $9k?  or have your odds changed?  

Did you enter a short, and if so was there a stoploss that got triggered?  Should be running tight stop losses, no?  Any margin trading "experts" want to chime in, here?

I am no expert, and I only do small time margin trading as an aside.

Stop losses are necessary sometimes, but in my experience it's better to set loose (untight! Ask jbreher if in doubt) stop losses while keeping a hedging (opposing) position on another trade leg. This often allows me to cash a bit on both legs if there is jitter around the thresholds. In any case, as one position goes more and more into loss, the other goes more and more into gain. Ideally, they should more or less balance out. At the very least, this allows me time to think: I have a choice of cashing out a bit from one or swallowing a bit of loss from the other. When the direction is clear, it is possible to exit one leg gradually - or abruptly, whatever.

Depending on the exchange's policy, I might NOT be able to use the unrealized gains as margin if I don't "realize" them (cash them out). So I do my own research, or I might find my position liquidated even in the middle of huge paper gains. What really helps is keeping the leverage very low - ideally, under 1, which actually means no leverage at all. By doing so, if the losing position gets increasingly worse, I can at least cash out the other one and gain some breathing air.

Disclosure: I have such a setup at the moment. The short position bought me some tasty bacon, but the long position is suffering. I'm going to be liquidated if the price falls below 3k. Yes. My liquidation is well below 3k. That's what I mean by "underleveraging".

One fine day I'll jump back on the wagon and stop trading for good. Until that wagon day comes, I hope my confession is helpful.