Interesting analysis. Although mining is only one factor which you should take into consideration when figuring out trend changes.
When price is too low to be profitable miners quit, close their businesses and dificulty falls making it easier and cheaper to mine. This is the main fundamental. So this has to do mostly with adoption. Miners think they dictate the prices but they can't be more wrong. Price is about supply/demand. Supply is finite with Bitcoin. We can only have 21m and this is a critical factor that makes it's price rise astronomically. The other factor is adoption (demand). Seeing how there is no massive adoption, as it was happening at the same month 2 years ago, I can only see price going down for the time being.
When price is too low to be profitable miners quit, close their businesses and dificulty falls making it easier and cheaper to mine. This is the main fundamental. So this has to do mostly with adoption. Miners think they dictate the prices but they can't be more wrong. Price is about supply/demand. Supply is finite with Bitcoin. We can only have 21m and this is a critical factor that makes it's price rise astronomically. The other factor is adoption (demand). Seeing how there is no massive adoption, as it was happening at the same month 2 years ago, I can only see price going down for the time being.
Mining is the MAIN factor to consider with bitcoin pricing (I never said exclusive factor). If the miners were random guys with CPU's yes if the price falls too low then they can just quit, but with the invention of the bitcoin ASIC it now requires and forward investment.
Very few mining businesses (in any industry) after they have bought all their equipment and are functional, simply give up. They use their weight to influence the market and preserve their FUTURE investment.
I show the general level of speculation which includes all other factors you are talking about, HODLers, institutions, traders, business people using btc, lost btc (which is significant), etc. The FBI is one of the largest holders of BTC in the world. It is locked in an evidence locker
