Quote from: Pursuer on June 18, 2019, 12:11:30 PM

Quote from: figmentofmyass on June 18, 2019, 07:02:19 AM

too many people are bearish for the price to crash

I disagree. if too many people were bearish then the price would have fallen already.

bearish sentiment is just an indication that there are many sellers at this level. it doesn't mean supply is stronger than demand. if strong demand is absorbing all the selling in this range, then excess demand will push the price higher. this will "bear trap" all the sellers in this range.

this is why, counter-intuitively, bearish sentiment is often a bullish sign. it means lots of people have already sold. if the price moves higher, they will be pressured to buy back. this creates a bullish feedback loop where higher prices beget higher prices.

Quote from: Pursuer on June 18, 2019, 12:11:30 PM

people say they are bearish and wish for the price to fall but they do NOT sell. bearish people sell.

it makes no sense to assume everyone is doing the opposite of what they say. when people express bearish sentiment, they are selling---at least some of the time. it's only rational to sell when you think the price is heading down.

Quote from: Pursuer on June 18, 2019, 12:11:30 PM

don't look at shorts, they are mostly from newbies who are gambling in the market not traders. and gamblers are always making lots of bets like this and they don't affect the market. the only ones that affect the market are those participating in it with their sales and buys not bets.

that's not true. longs affect real supply and demand, especially where margin is allowed on spot exchanges. on kraken, bitfinex, etc margin traders are literally trading with spot traders. shorts are literally sells.

your argument applies somewhat to futures. however, post-settlement, physically delivered coins (eg on bitmex, deribit) end up on spot exchanges to some extent. this directly affects supply.