Quote from: cAPSLOCK on June 27, 2019, 03:56:47 AM

First of all I feel like I was a bit of a dick for picking on gemblitz. He is undoubtedly a special sort of idiot, but there is no reason for me to treat him badly. I apologize.

The other thing is... yes today was a bad day for Monero. But in reality it is still performing better than most other alts right now. For the day it is down very significantly. And it's painful to see... I am surprised it has gone this low. But in the perspective of this week, month and year it is doing better than average compared to the field.

I see four scenarios:

1. Bitcoin is all that matters in the crypto universe. This would be the ultra maximalist view. This is what Tone* is currently slinging I guess. Alts will now die. Now. As in over the next 6-12 months they will shrivel to 1-10% of their current value vs BTC. This includes Monero. Bitcoin's coming privacy improvements (schnorr, taproot etc) will render it meaningless.

2. (Polar opposite to #1) We are in "Alt Capitulation". Today we will have shaken out all the weak hands for alts in general. This is 12/15/2018 for alts. And now, alts in masse will follow Bitcoins recent parabolic move, possibly even in contrast to a (much needed) BTC pullback from these local highs. BTC may settle down, and even correct while alts take some spotlight and play catch up. The sector will move as a whole.

3. This is the time we separate the wheat from the chaff. As BTC corrects and alts capitulate, only the alt projects with value will rise from the ashes as the garbage pile that is most alts fades slowly (or quickly) into obscurity. XMR is among these as the POW based blockchain with the leading privacy on the base layer. Other notable alts will also survive (ETH, DCR, LTC? a few others?)

4. Left Field. This would be a scenario that is basically like #2 or #3 but with a new contender (or maybe 2 or 3) coming in to take the spotlight from all the other alts. GRIN maybe? ETH 2.0? BSV (ha... hahaha ... hahahahaha)**. Bitcoin keeps the main stage but a new contender rises up to challenge it. "Traditional" alts fade as the new kids on the block soak up the spotlight.

Personally, I think #3 is most likely with 1,2 and 4 following.

Likelihood in my opinion:

#3 50%
#1 25%
#2 20%
#4 5%

What do you guys think?

*Why has that guy become a bitcoin luminary personality? That silly number system and all his horrendous calls. I mean he isn't a terrible evangelist for bitcoin, but he isn't really any trading savant either... seriously overrated in my opinion and that has NOTHING to do with his recent attack in XMR which I have not seen. And the association with the hyperwave idiot... seriously. I suppose P.T. Barnum was right.

** Seriously if CSW pulls of the greatest scam in the history of the Earth (which means he is most likely the Antichrist) then I give up... I will just walk away.

Good post.

It seems this time it will be all about institutional money, and institutional money only wants bitcoin, maybe ETH, and a few others. Monero? Might be too shady.

Also, as Brandt said (below), this might be like the dotcom bubble. We had a Cambrian explosion of tech stocks/shitcoins. The extinction event is taking place now. Everything will appear dead, but the strong will survive and prosper. Maybe they'll re-emerge in 2020-21 as people look to offload some BTC profits, regulatory clarity finally occurs, maybe some good altcoin custodial solutions emerge (bakkt?), and people become more educated about altcoins (thanks in part to libra).

So, I'm thinking a combination of 1 and 3, but if I have to vote discretely:
1. 30%
2. 25%
3. 25% - Smart money coming into the sector may be able to discern the high quality coins. However, it's taken them 10 years just to seriously look at Bitcoin. I suppose bitcoin could just be the gateway drug
4. 20% LIBRA - has the potential to absolutely annihilate most other altcoins

Some other popular analysts have chimed in on this: