Quote from: Pursuer on June 29, 2019, 06:33:13 AM

Quote from: ab1jx on June 29, 2019, 05:21:15 AM

I'm trying to decide if this peak is over. The last one hit $19,000 and some people have speculated this one would reach $20,000. I jumped in at about $4,000 with $450. If this is a peak it's much lower than I expected. We had a few weeks of uncertainty that ended a couple weeks ago when it went from $8k to $12k. This could be more of that. There's power in reinvesting, but you need to wait for the price to drop. Then you make x% profit on more capital, and keep reinvesting. As long as it doesn't go below where you jumped in you're not losing money.

it depends on how you define "peak". you certainly can not compare the recent price rise ($12kish) with the ATH of 2017 ($20k). the former is a simple rise with a peak that followed by a small correction, as expected; but the latter was a big ass bubble followed by a bubble burst as expected.
if you are a day trader then the recent $12k+ was a peak for you and you should have sold and then bought back right away as the correction occurred at ~10% lower price. if you are not a day trader then you should never even think about small corrections like this. we are in a bull market and you should aim for the next bubble which is probably around $100k.

What I'd like to do is a series of buy low, sell high steps, reinvesting the profit from one peak into the next one. I wrote a somewhat silly simulation program, the output of which is like:
Start with how much? 450 Goal is? 1000000 invest $450.00, get back $1474.03 (randomized profit 328%) wait for price to bottom out invest $1474.03, get back $4809.05 (randomized profit 326%) wait for price to bottom out invest $4809.05, get back $12700.42 (randomized profit 264%) wait for price to bottom out invest $12700.42, get back $46824.96 (randomized profit 369%) wait for price to bottom out invest $46824.96, get back $149630.09 (randomized profit 320%) wait for price to bottom out invest $149630.09, get back $594102.06 (randomized profit 397%) wait for price to bottom out invest $594102.06, get back $1276485.25 (randomized profit 215%)
My initial investment is somewhat expendable, I wish I'd had more to spend. I would expect each cycle to take a year or so.

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Since the mining difficulty factor is climbing beyond where it's practical to mine without free electricity like solar, it makes sense that the price is going up. I was surprised the last low only got down to about $4k and not more like $400, but that's probably what the future holds.

mining difficulty and its cost are not the factors deciding the price, they never have been and never will be.

I was thinking supply and demand, since the supply of new bitcoins is drying up it seemed like that would push the price up.