Ninjastic
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
JayJuanGee
on 11/07/2019, 04:14:52 UTC
Quote from: jonoiv on July 11, 2019, 03:45:10 AM
Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 11, 2019, 03:22:01 AM
Quote from: jonoiv on July 11, 2019, 02:56:22 AM
Quote from: JSRAW on July 09, 2019, 02:05:57 AM
..........
20. jonoiv not gonna happen bro Tongue
....

you 100% or just 99% sure?

Looks like you are lacking a decent amount of confidence too, jonoiv, if you are willing to only shave 1% off of the certainty level.

Personally, I would concede that the odds of BTC reaching another low in this cycle (thus breaking below $3,122) would likely be at least 15%.  Of course, if you are suggesting lower numbers than that, then the odds would be lower, depending on how low is your prognostication.  I thought that I had seen you suggesting levels in the $1k area which is likely getting us to below 3% odds, and I am not sure if I would even go to 1% or lower odds, until maybe we start to talk about below $500....  In any event, it is difficult to place a number on it, and you seem to be conceding that your ideas are pie in the sky which should suggest that we should not even be entertaining them at all because why the fuck would we be planning our lives (or our BTC investments) around 1% scenarios?  makes sense?

I'm never 100% sure of anything. As you might know im not clearvoyant. But to put odds on it, is't really relivant, odds are fluid, so if the price hits 8.5k this month, the odds of 6k shorten.
for the record i didn't personally suggest 1K area that was just an elliot wave theory from some dude that predicted 13500 top.  He was quite close so his work got my attension.
Personally suggested 2.6k might be the bottom, based on my own TA.  But if it hits 2.6k then 1k's arn't too far away, but i would probably Hodl from 3k.  

My main reasons for thinking this way is that it's happened in the past and, I don't trust that the current prices or any historical prices are organic, that they're heavily manipulated, and underhand tactics used to make people make bad choices about when to sell or buy.  

You might go on about me being paranoid again...but.



Yes.. you are correct that the lower the price goes, then the higher the odds become that the price will go lower, yet we still need to deal with from where we currently are at, so perhaps you might even be wiling to concede that from here perhaps going below $3,122 has odds of about 15% or so, and yes, I would concede that the odds for going to $2,600 would not be much different than the odds for $3,122 because once we get to $3,122, if we were to get there, then there could likely be enough momentum to get to $2,600 so from here, maybe we might only shave off a percentage or two in order to reach $2,600... but I will suggest that $1k is in a bit harder to reach territory, as I already said.. maybe in the 3% territory.  On the other hand, if we get to $3,122 then the odds of reaching any of the lower prices become higher, but we would have to get there first, so seems like a BIG ass waste of time to be exploring variations of these kinds of pie in the sky scenarios when we are not even heading in that direction, yet.  Like you said, gotta break below $10k again, and then $8,500 and then $7k and then $4,200... so there are quite a few spots in which the buy support would be much stronger than anything that the bearwhales could throw at it.

Your dumb ass statement that "it has happened in the past" seems to be a bit out of context, because you seem to be just trying to assert that such a downward event, at this time, is more likely than it is... and currently we happen to be in a bull market, so show the exact comparison that you are suggesting if you want to seriously entertain "it has happened in the past" baloney.