Quote from: deisik on February 16, 2014, 07:37:56 PM

how do you know actually?

Nobody knows the future, but a trader must have some sort of trading strategy and allocate resources according to probabilities.

Quote from: deisik on February 16, 2014, 07:37:56 PM

I still think that the probability of bitcoin going down to $40 is much higher than going to $40k per coin, lol

I agree.
But if bitcoin goes to $40, it'll get there on its way to $0, as it'd mean something major had happened (sha-256 broken?), which would render it not able to recover at all, ever.

If it's more of the same FUD we have witnessed over the past 1-2 months, the chance of $40 is 0.1% or less. Now, that's 2014. I wouldn't bet or make probabilities on what can happened in 2015, it's too far away to try to predict in the crypto world.

And we're talking here about closing daily price. Any kind of spike down is possible, like the one we saw at btc-e down to $102, but that's just a spike due to too few buy orders at that very moment on that particular exchange, the closing daily price of course was very different.