Quote from: Majormax on July 16, 2019, 11:28:10 PM

Quote from: kurious on July 16, 2019, 09:39:47 PM

Quote from: rolling on July 16, 2019, 09:33:50 PM

What does the 2017 vs 2019 one look like now?

Irrelevant.

It's normally a four year cycle, so we aren't in 2017, but we might be rhyming with 2015...

Not now rhyming with 2015. That one has been broken.

It might be good news, but as I said before a few months ago, a too-strong rally at this stage might be bad news for the future. The reason is that exponential rises always trap a lot of late buyers at various levels on the way up, and it often means they are shaken out over a long bear phase. The shape of the chart puts new interim lows back on the map , and could delay any future ATH by some time.

I know that I sufficiently make fun of folks for the battle of the fractal, but I would suggest that we are in a kind of correction that seems sufficiently within the parameters of the early 2016 correction after $500.. and thereby, after floating around in this neighborhood, there could be another effort to breach $13,880 in a few months.. but hey, that might be me, and you surely seem to be speculating about a much deeper and longer correction from here, and surely today's action, including our so far inability to recover does seem to support such a possible situation.

Quote from: Majormax on July 16, 2019, 11:34:51 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 16, 2019, 10:05:20 PM

...
Of course, if BTC prices were to get into the sub $5k arena, then I am surely going to have to consider whether I need to restructure some of my lower buy orders in order that I do not run out of money for buying... .. sub $5k does seem a bit unlikely but you never know.

There is some good support at 6.4k , so sub 5k is not likely (and at least not until the middle of next year).

If it gets under 5K , probably best to not look for a year or two. That would be the return of winter.

Hopefully new support levels can be gradually built up in the next month or so. A new support above 7k would be a positive. Time will tell.

Sure, fair enough.

Without really battling you about numbers, it can be quite difficult to get an assessment while we are still seeming to be in a downward trajectory without any meaningful bounce...

I am thinking that surely it is going to take some time to break below $8k to even bring the breaking of $7k into question... but whatever, I would feel a lot better to see whether we get any kind of meaningful recovery or bounce in the next few days and maybe within a week... so otherwise, I likely agree with you that a bounce anywhere above $7k would be bullish, too... even though I don't seem to be as optimistic as you that $7k is so easily reached.. but with the amount of plunge today, even I might start to question myself.. to the extent that any of my predictions matter anyhow, because I tend to follow the same buying on the way down behavior even if my opinion might change a bit regarding likelihood of down or up.