Neil Woodford in the UK comes to mind. Had decades of success and was highly revered. His £1bn+ funds were constantly ranked as some of the best in the market for returns, where even gov pension funds had invested.

Then it started unravelling owing to high investment in illiquid assets as he tried chasing high returns from subdued safer assets. When those risky investments started unravelling, he was trapped and had to block anyone from exiting, save the entire fund collapsing.

This is was someone who had a gleaming investment record. So even the "best" can trip up eventually or may even just get lucky flipping heads year after year until their luck runs out...

MA may have just got lucky with a few forecasts, but if you look at RenTech or Two Sigma, they appear to have the very technology and processes that MA claims. Yet never has MA ever presented either his tech or his team - where even his WEC events girl isn't based in FL, so she must be a contractor - in any such way. He appears to have run a longstanding publishing firm, and when he was trading, he messed it all up much like Woodford.[/quote]
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Absolutely - I invested with Neil Woodford at Invesco, amongst other UK equity funds, and always knew of his fondness for unlisted/smaller cos. I chose not to invest in his new fund because his investment approach was changing and often when 'star manager' changes their set-up something goes wrong; a new variable is introduced. Anthony Bolton at Fidelity was a legend in UK equities and then launched a Chinese equity investment trust, and it went south horribly.

How does this relate to MA? My impression is that he too was very successful until the late 1990s but, as I understand from reading those links to Barlcay Lieb a little earlier in the thread, since MA got out of prison (no doubt a horrible experience) too much has changed (including MA) and the inconsistencies on his calls have put me off being a Socrates subscriber. Maybe MA's own cycle is over; we all have our moment in the sun.

Yes Rentech appears to be the real deal and of course if you have found a great system for consistent profits why would you sell it?? MA's story is that he is selling his system for the little guy (yet always criticising other analysts who sell things) and therefore getting one back on the bankers but the inconsistencies mean the little guy has no chance if experienced traders on this board are struggling and no-one yet has put up evidence of how to trade repeatably and successfully using Socrates. So my conclusion is that it isn't for me although I will continue to watch developments if ever a public fund using Socrates was launched and still read the blog for the long term macro calls.

Let's face it - Who wouldn't want to read the blog of an investment forecaster who has had a film made about him, who has seen a UFO, has seen evidence of a perpetual motion machine, and who built a self-aware computer that self-destructed in WTC 7 - the building that fell down of it own accord.

Best wishes from UK Cheesy