Quote from: Kiwibird on July 20, 2019, 03:01:18 AM

Quote from: unwashed on July 19, 2019, 09:31:57 PM

To be honest, I never looked at TA as a time scale but you can make projections. First there has to be a trend and by extending the trendline or channel forward you can guesstimate where the security will be at a particular time in the future. ONLY IF it stays within the trendline and/or channel and no unexpected condition arises, ie correction, recession, war etc, then the process starts all over again. For example IF the Dow follows the red channel and stays the coarse the Dow could be at 46720 on 6/13/2024 but IF it follows above the yellow channel it will be at the same level on 6/3/2032. Another good example is the yellow channel from 2009 to 2019, this channel was created when the Dow made it first low after the 2009 bottom, 2011. So in 2011 IF the Dow continued it upward trend (which it did) you could see where it could be in 2017. Yes, it's hindsight but shows the projections. The trend is in force until the weight of the evidence says otherwise. I posted the same chart but with the two projections on it. https://imgur.com/a/ktgh5Oe

Just a side I personally would prefer the Dow not follow the red channel since the steeper the ascent the more likely a bubble. I would prefer it continue along the yellow channel, slow and steady and less risky. But the market does what it wants, lol.

Btw this is my own personal opinion and observations.

Interesting - thank you!

Armstrong has mentioned the case for a 'Channel Move' - is that definition where it moves up between the red lines (rookie q)?
He has always said 40ish for the DOW, and now the cycle has extended, he says probability of 60K for 2032.
Does the top of your yellow line touch 60K for 2032?

Yes, those are the channels MA talks about and what annoys me about him. These are not some new discovery or magical secret. There are ascending, descending and horizontal (support and resistance) Channels. From what I understand some traders make a living trading Horizontal Channels, Buy at support and sell at resistance and /or short resistance and buy back at support. I was never able to achieve that myself, different skillset. As to the 60k the yellow channel shows 2041 but the red shows 2027. But as I stated before the red steeper channel may not be sustained. But, I guess if it continues along that red channel, you could ride it up and when it breaks you can run for the exit. Grin

, hopefully before everyone else. Unless the yellow channel has a blow off in 2032 that channel shows 2041 for 60k.

Just a point about charts, as was told to me, "Charts are a graphical representation of human behavior".