Quote from: DanB1 on July 26, 2019, 02:05:42 PM

Quote from: blinder007 on July 26, 2019, 08:27:44 AM

I am challenging Martin Armstrong to publish historical results of his SOCRATES reversal system!

It would be very easyfor him to shut up all his critics by publishing historical results of the Reversal "system", assuming they are profitable Grin

.

What do I mean? I show it as an example:

I am using Tradestation. I use as an example a breakout system (the so called Turtle System).

Initial capital: USD 100'000 same rules applied to all symbols - so NO optimization

Symbols (futures contracts) traded:

Equity Indices: YM, ES, NQ, FDAX, NK
Interest rates: US, FGBL
Currencies: EC, JY, SF,
Metals: GC, SI, HG
Commodities: CL, W, KC

based on Daily bars, over the last 10 years.

Results:
Total return: $ 322'031
nbr of trades: 1997
winning trades 763
losing 1230
% prof 38,2 % in range with most trend following systematic systems

avg trade: + $ 135.33
Profit factor: 1.10
avg win/avg loss 1.77

compound Annual Return: 15.8 %
max consecutive wins: 9
max consecutive losses: 24

max runups, max drawdowns etc

Information like that helps you decide if you want to consider such a system. In this exemple rather Not.

So I am challanging Martin Armstrong to publish historical results of his reversal sytems (Annually, quaterly, monthly, weekly, daily) in a similar manner to give clients or potential clients a change beeing able to make an informed decision.

He can add the usual dislaimer requested by CFTC that it is hypothetical etc etc blabla.

If he is not willing and able to provide that, would be the last major SIGN that it is all a SCAM or a loosing approach.

Until and unless HE PROVES the validity of his "SYSTEM" STAY AWAY.

When you post this, you still think that there is a way to use Socrates for trading, when you're just 'smart enough to understand it'.
Nobody here will ever post anything that can prove Socrates works because it simply does not work so there is nothing to prove.

Look at poor old Gumbi. Posting 1 trade, his first on the blog. If he did exactly the opposite of what Socrates suggested at least then he would have made a very small profit.
You will not here from poor old Gumbi anymore. I remember how he was bragging that we were all too stupid, well look at him now.

For me, the final realization of this fraud happens at one of the last blog posts regarding Ray Dalio.
I mean, here is Ray Dalio, multi billionaire, runs one of the world biggest hedge funds, everybody listens when he talks.
And then there is MA, selling monthly subscriptions and reports to retail investors, nobody listens, that's why only some alternative media uses him.
But of course MA has a magic computer that does all the work...give me a break.

Anyway, I think we should make an end to this fraud. How can we let the world know MA and his super computer are fake?

First I do not think that MA will ever make public any meaningful backtesting results of SOCRATES. By meaningful I mean all timeframes of a diversified portfolio applied.
Not just a handpicked timeframe and market - since I can find for any (even the worst) system a timeframe and market where it has worked in the past.

After following the "nice looking" system charts with the arrows signals on them that he publishes from time to time I would assume that daily and weekly signals are outright loosers (buy the high - sell the low type signals). Monthly might by profitable but with huge drawdowns and huge give back of open profit at market turns. Something that no trader can tolerate mentally. Quaterly and yearly is complete garbage.

So I do not expect him to ever release any results. On your own you cannot do it since we have no data for the past.
I do not think there is a way to use Socrates sytematically to make a profit.

Just use regular charting software, look for important support and resistance points from the past, watch if the market makes higher lows and higher highs then the trend is up, if it makes lower lows and lower highs, the trend is down and develop some rules how you wan't to enter in the direction of the trend, decide where you are wrong and place the stop there and decide how you will exit the trade if profitable. And do not overtrade. Risk 0.5 to 1 % of equity per trade.
Nobody needs SOCRATES to do that.

Also please consider that Armstrong is approaching 70 years. Nobody is mentally in his prime performance years in his 70ties. We all deteriorate then.

I think that alredy shows lately in his blog posts - some of them come over as if a complete moron or crazy person wrote them. I he was a proven loosing trader in his 40 and 50ties do you thing he is a great one now??!!!! Don't think so.