Quote from: netrin on September 12, 2011, 04:28:54 AM

Thanks. I've given BIS a skim and it fills me with Rathenau's delirium of milliards. I'm looking for more long term ~200 year data.

Yes, our 'modern' economy is truly dizzying. Friends not long ago were more likely to believe we live among or are ruled by aliens than accept fractional reserve, much less swaps and other abstract derivatives But I think people are getting a hint that something is http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=31IYm0gQS_A&t=22s

Use scientific notation.

I see. For that, you'd probably have to hit individual nation's records. Hopefully it'll be easier to find financial data than death records. I tried looking into census information regarding presumed causes of death during the Great Depression in the United States, and there was virtually no "clean" data available from any of the sources I was able to stir up. It was almost as though nobody died because of living conditions and starvation during the worst decade until WWII began, even though major cities around the rest of the world suffered horrible rates of indigent starving in the streets. Anecdotal evidence suggests it certainly happened in NYC and other metropolitan hubs.

Yes, cultural beliefs rooted in emotion seem to prevent any sense from invading most minds until it's bludgeoned into them. Bring on the machines!

Quote from: cypherdoc on September 12, 2011, 05:54:26 PM

... PM's are heading down.

don't forget your original premise for buying gold and silver: relentless Fed devaluation of the USD. now what do you do when the USD is rising? buy more or perhaps sell?

We did agree on the dollar rising, but there's too much brewing under the surface that's supportive of a launch in precious metals to position negatively with them. Instead, buying weakness is prudent. From a little longer perspective, the $1,680 gap still warrants watching.

The dollar rally is another issue and very suspicious. Without the Swiss and Norwegian moves, it's improbable that it would've closed above 77.

Positive money flows into gold and silver ETFs. Where is the flow coming from? Interests that are better informed than the retail investors being led around by their noses.

Gold mining stocks break out relative to S&P. Unbelievable strength in the face of unprecedented deflation: not something to stand against.

Gold positioning is at a critical mass. If any large interest (*cough* JP Morgan *cough*) begins short-covering now, it will make the QE1 and QE2-induced rises look like pimples on a gorilla's ass. Apologies in advance for the emesis-worthy imagery.

Gold to exceed $2,000 within 45 days. Key is the fact that gold is under-owned as an asset class. For that matter, Bitcoin is under-owned, but for different reasons. The only asset more powerful than one that functions as money is agriculture. Arable land is also a severely under-owned asset class by percentage of population.

Jean-Marie Eveillard estimates global ownership is at 0.4% when recent historical highs have been around 5% - so a 5-fold increase in ownership should equate to a minimum of 5-10 times the price, or about $9,000-18,000/oz. However, as demand rises and supply is insufficient to meet that demand, price will escalate more rapidly. That is where the real parabolic rise will come in; there's still some time left before that happens.

None of the above analyses are based on what the Fed will do. I'll have more tomorrow.

Quote from: MatthewLM on September 12, 2011, 09:31:27 PM

I just learned that Peter Schiff is trying to make a debit card using Visa or Mastercard which interfaces with the gold backed bank he is forming (outside US due to legal reasons).

Nice find - do you have a link?

Quote from: MatthewLM on September 12, 2011, 10:38:34 PM

It's like GoldMoney indeed.

Gold Bullion International also seems to be headed in that direction. GoldMoney already facilitates transactions between existing GM account holders. There are hurdles to introducing a gold-backed transactional account, but it will happen. Bitcoin is sort of a proof-of-concept for that. The combination of Bitcoin and gold is exactly what Open Transactions is suited for. Existing infrastructure already exists to make Visa & Mastercard pretty much irrelevant - mobile phones. Independent terminals at a business could simply scan a QR code off a person's phone to facilitate a transaction; a wholly software solution, as the physical hardware is in place.