Quote from: olegrey on August 03, 2019, 01:12:27 PM

Quote from: DanB1 on August 03, 2019, 09:08:33 AM

Quote from: olegrey on August 03, 2019, 02:37:45 AM

Quote from: bikefront on August 03, 2019, 01:20:00 AM

Quote from: olegrey on August 02, 2019, 09:48:26 PM

The DOW elected the bearish reversal of 26522.3 with a closing of 26485.0, a 0.14% difference. A new position was bought in DOG. All previously elected reversal sell rules are reset to this election

Weekly Bearish or Daily?

Daily

Sorry, personally I can't do anything with this, as MA has told numerous times, dailies are noise. It's scraping instead of trading.
Sure you have made some money now, well done. It might look like Socrates really works but most of us here have tried trading dailies and it's like flipping a coin, as data on this blog has proven.

What I am interested in now is what MA thinks of Government Bonds (and Bond proxies).
MA has stated many times yields going up and that we've seen the low. But so far new lows have been made almost every week for the last few months. And looking at the macro side (rate of change) we might go a lot lower as we get closer to a possible recession.
I was hesitating to go in bonds as I think MA had a good point there but luckily enough a friend and investor convinced me otherwise so I bought some bonds (various time levels) early in the year and it's now one of the better macro investments YTD (also because of the low volatility). And I do think we still have a long way to go regarding US yields (we might go negative as well)

Does anyone has any insight if MA's opinion has changed?
I do think that in some places like Turkey yields could blow up leaving the government with no other decision than delaying payments and/or extending durations (ie 10yr becomes 20yr/30yr).
I just don't see it happening in the US or Europe. So if we are talking about a huge rise in worldwide yield levels, as MA has been doing, you need the yields to go up on a broad basis.
Of course if we go lower, at some point negative yields are not sustainable and things will change but we do not need a supercomputer to predict that.

He did not say the dailies are noise. He said dailies are more affected by noise than the other timeframes.

Here is what Armstrong actually says on the subject
"In order to use Reversal points to identify a true potential change in trend, it is best
to focus on Monthly Reversals Daily and Weekly are typically noise for this purpose.

A correction on a Daily or Weekly basis may appear to be a change in trend, but
it ends up being a false move only to see price reverse once again."

https://www.ask-socrates.com/Content/Files/SOCRATES%20Platform%20-%20Top%20Questions%20and%20Misconceptions%20v1.0%20(June%202019).pdf

So daily reversals are just noise in terms of a change of trend, not just based on noise in general