Quote from: Febo on August 04, 2019, 05:50:59 PM

Quote from: LoyceMobile on August 04, 2019, 06:50:10 AM

Isn't it much more worrying the interest didn't reach it's precious high before they start reducing it again? I see a overall decline in peaks, doesn't that mean the economic boom was less strong than the previous one?

Yes, they have little firepower to fight recession. Many believe this will be the last recession and after it economists will forget about Keynes and revive Hayek. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0nERTFo-Sk Economy is not as strong as in early 2000 because recession of 2008 was never really cured.

Quote from: alter-securities on August 04, 2019, 02:53:08 PM

As somebody said: when everyone talks about upcoming crisis - there will be no crisis, but when everyone forgets about it - crisis will come. I might be quoting it wrong, but I also believe that nowadays as literally everyone knows about economic problems, everyone is prepared and tries to mitigate it - there is little chance of significant recession occurring. Temporary minor decline - possible, but not recession. And surely the countdown is not for months, but rather for few years.

When you have no weapons to fight it does not matter much if you know the enemy is at the gates. Just look at the graph. Normal interest rates should be from 2-5% and crisis used to start when were above 5%. Now are at 2% and in Europe at zero.

"Normal interest rates" - that's the issue with such logic. What used to be normal decades ago - not anymore, what was normal ages ago - not anymore. So the case with interest rates. So who said low interest rates are bad? Books or academicians? Well I guess if they would be so successful in economic planning and management - they would be the ones running the current economy Wink

People live and predict collapse and recession already for at least 3-4 years as I remember. Every year new prophets come with their prediction of soon to collapse markets. But we just continue to see ATHs. So isn't is the new normal? If you wanna argue the interest rates then yes, the system itself is designed in such a way that credit collapses and grows will occur, but not necessarily because of too low or too high interest rates. There need to be many other factors to come into play (productivity, unemployment, social factors, and many others), or just one a major one (such as Lehman was, and now everyone expects Deutsche to be), but until then - prophets will continue forecasting recessions in the next X months/years, but nothing will change significantly without major disruption, as long as everything keeps going the way it is.