Quote from: philipma1957 on August 16, 2019, 04:58:08 AM

Quote from: Searing on August 15, 2019, 08:55:34 PM

Quote from: RsvTu on August 15, 2019, 06:52:56 PM

Yes not easy to find under 8c kWh in europe either. Scandinavia we running 6.5c/kWh (euro and summertime) and no VAT need to pay from orders that comes outside EU when you make order as company but if you dont have company then you need to pay VAT of course.. Anyway hard times indeed for many of us miners... North Russia have some cheap places, but Russia is always big questionmark.

Well, IMHO, the ASIC manufacturers for some reason decided to (even before when crypto was flat and not going down 10% like this week) think it was OK to

do the following:

1) Up, the price by 25% or more on any ASIC'S of any flavor crypto. All the major guys did this, more or less at the same time.

2) Make their previously 2-month pre-orders stretch into 4 months or more. Most common now is Dec 2019 but a lot state it as an ETA and put down Jan 2020.

So, the 'market' has to be coming from someplace. Even if it is in full FOMO mode, the manufacturer's would not be doing this, at this time of crypto prices,

especially, unless they had a big market for their products and pre-orders.

I just don't get it. Usually, this kind of action is based on a pump in crypto prices in a big way, in that this does not seem the case, I can only guess that it

is due to high electric costs in the USA and elsewhere (Summer rates). 10c kWh doesn't cut it anymore at these electric prices and crypto prices.

So I can only assume the FOMO is coming from countries with really cheap electric and no tariff issues piling on at this point in time and the ASIC manufacturer's

are trying to catch up and can't. Thus the price rise on equipment and the pushing out of pre-order delivery.

Anyway, any better data feel free to drop a line on this thread, especially if you are from a country that does have cheap electric and/or no VAT or TARIFF or

whatever. Also, to see if my view is correct from someplace in East Asia as an example with hosting! (heh...every scammer now is gonna plug me on Bitcointalk)

I suppose if the BTC price and Altcoin prices now go up by 50% or some such, I will have my answer (the usual a lot of people are smarter than me and foresaw this)

seems like a hell of a risky action from the manufacturer's end, UNLESS, they have a hell of a lot of demand yet. IMHO.

Chump or Champ we will be the first to know!

Brad

Many people have said it will all end up being commercial Mining large scale.

So 3 to 5 cent miner with the l3+

Does what. We have 11 gh at Clifton it makes .19 to .20 ltc a day

At 75 bucks an ltc that is 15 dollars.

We use 17000 watts or 17 x 24 = 408 kwatts a day to earn 15 dollars.

At 3 cent power that is 12.24
At 4 cent power that is 16.32 or loser
At 5 cent power that is 20.40 of loser

So we should see a big tank in diff coming right up on ltc.

What about the other elephant in the room, concerning BTC/LTC and/or crypto Bitmain miners of any flavor? There massive presence?

The fact that, again, guess, IMHO, Bitmain L3+'s account for about say (guess) 65% of all scrypt-pow miners?

The other 'shoe to drop' is that Bitmain sha-256 products still running at say an S9 or below account for about 40% say of sha-256.

If any of the above is even close. The difficulty will get to a point someday with either, that you will see large amounts of the network

drop off at the same time vs difficulty/price and electric costs. There are consequences for this concentration of Bitmain units in the future.

Then difficulty drops, they all turn on again, it difficulty goes back up because these units all jump on again,

they all shut off again and yo/yo for a couple of months, till the all fade away. My fear at a continuing cost to the price of crypto in the dumps.

With the lack of viable (again IMHO) cost-effective new equipment worth getting vs difficulty vs electric costs etc and the current prices of all crypto be it BTC/LTC/or any flavor.

We could have a perfect storm where, due to the price of crypto and above large swaths of crypto Bitmain equipment mostly, would all dump, at the

same time with the effects I state above. Which brings us right back to, whatever crypto you HODL, mine, or whatever, adoption of coin as relates to price.

Worst of all possible worlds, because if big data hall in the USA you dump your crypto of choice to pay for the building payments and other stuff,

even if you have shut say your Bitmain L3+'s off. You sell your hoard of whatever you are mining along with a mass of others to get things

paid-up and or wrap'd up with this 'mining' hit you've taken.

Which would further cause the price to dump, even if difficulty went down?

It is not like everyone (again, IMHO) is gonna rush out and get any scrypt-pow newer (by a bit) miners at this time to compensate. Not with the (again, IMHO)

unfathomable 30-40% price rise (I don't understand, the equipment makers act like we are in a crypto pump) nor the now 3-4 month pre-order game again!

Again, IF, my assumptions are right and Bitmain Data Hall and other Miners (as of now scrypt-pow)

are scrambling to fix/pay/clean up their affairs by all these Bitmain L3+'s dumping out of the network of any scrypt-pow coin.

You can make the same point eventually with a large amount of Bitmain Sha-256 units, eventually, having the same

effect and splash when their time comes. So depending on how far they are in the hole on all this majority of Bitmain equipment of any flavor,

a lot of otherwise reasonable miner types could dump, because they have to at prices they really, don't want to, because they can't HODL, due

to there over-bought from one Mfg: Bitmain units. All at the worse time, price wise, acting as a perfect storm and driving the price further down, down, down.

Yech, scared self!

So yeah, we need a safe-haven, recovery, via adoption, in some manner on LTC in particular (most vulnerable L3+'s IMHO) or things could accelerate downward

much, much more rapidly, then folks expect big time in the short-term till the end of the year. Again, IMHO.

Specifically, the large amount of shutting off scrypt-pow wise of Bitmain L3's and L3+'s. Pray to the ASIC gods for 'adoption' big time I guess!

yech!

Anyway, again, I type as fast as I think, therefore, probably not as articulate as I could be. But folks get the point of what could accelerate things worse, unless

we get some price relief. Again, IMHO, above say $115 USD for LTC in particular.

Again, so my guesses go on this clusterf**k as I watch in dismay from the sidelines.

Then again, perhaps this above is all being taken care off by massive ASIC equipment sales of new equipment in non-Tariff and non-VAT countries in East Asia, say,

with cheap 4-5c kWh electric too boot. Perhaps all the manufacturers of any particular ASIC equipment of any flavor are getting slammed for orders. Thus the 40%

price rise on such FOMO and/or further being slam'd and thus moving pre-orders on top of this from 2 months to 4 months. A guy can hope this is the case, but

I'm not counting on it. That is how this is 'supposed' to work when ASIC equipment falls off the network, at least in the past, but unsure about this time.

end of rant

later

Brad