Quote from: MTL4 on August 20, 2019, 07:39:16 PM

Quote from: AnonymousCoder on August 20, 2019, 09:06:09 AM

Real trading goes like this: For example, to stay relevant, you short PCG like I did because PCG is bankrupt and has been in the news for weeks. Then you make 30% within a few days even without leverage. Sure, this is not a track record and I don't know yet what to do next. That is the problem. Where to get the ideas from. But at least this one is based on some kind of logic. That is what I used. Rather than looking at this Socrates contraption and biting fingernails. I am glad I am not looking at that thing any more.

PCG was a great short when it broke support at 21, nice trade to ride it down to the low. That had some pretty violent drops so look for it to likely bounce back towards 17 (support/resistance) before possibly falling further.

Quote from: bikefront on August 20, 2019, 01:02:30 PM

Olegrey, thanks for trying at least. The doji would be a matter of hindsight bias and also a matter of introducing something that was not part of the system. If we go back and try to find things that would have prevented a loss or made a gain, it would be called 'optimization' in systems talk. It basically means you change the system from past performance to have it 'fit' to have good results. Optimization doesn't work, unfortunately. This is the #1 method that the online snake oil sellers use to sell their 'system that returned X% in the past Y years! Verified!' Now, if you had some technical basis and a set of rules to go by that work to tell you when it works and when it won't, that would be different. There have been tried and tested methods that work, and the best one is, 'follow the trend'.

This ^^^^^ If your rules don't allow you to make a good trade at the time without the benefit of hindsight then it's not a valid trading system (ie time to go back to the drawing board)

It's in the rules to sell on the first day of it's a doji, it was kinda of one on the DOW but definitely a doji on the etf. So I think it's valid to add that