Quote from: AnonymousCoder on August 28, 2019, 02:18:38 AM

The Martin Armstrong Gold / Silver Ratio Fallacy

Quote from: Jason100 on August 27, 2019, 06:55:30 PM

Gold/Silver ratio daily
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In the video available as part of the Metals Report subscription, Martin Armstrong made a clear statement regarding the significance of the Gold / Silver Ratio with respect to a potential Gold Rally, using Reversals and Forecast Arrays as follows.

To cut a long story short: It is all bullshit, some other wizardry to keep the fools entertained and keep them buying his products. Martin Armstrong said that the Gold/Siver ratio needs to fall below 70 to get a change in trend. The ratio actually dipped below 70 without a precious metal rally after that time, but interestingly, while the Gold price rallied, the ratio then rose steadily up to now between 85 and 90, at the time when we have a significant precious metals rally. To make it clear: This is the opposite effect, and we are trying to derive conclusions from this?

Transcript from Video, made on 2016-07-01:

Now I said before that one of the reasons that we saw for example, that gold was not ready, was simply that this silver gold ratio has been rising. In a bull market, it normally declines which would then show we would then have people buying silver as well as gold. So this is been absent as you can see from effectively 2011. Now we went up and we reached this high in February. Now we have been moving down fairly aggressively but we have still not elected any monthly bearish reversals to say the trend is starting to change. We need that confirmation [shows monthly bearish reversals 7310, 7395, 7026, 6024] and now, what we are really looking at, we have taken out the first two minor ones, we really have to get below this 70 area, and then ultimately we have to take out 6024. But once that begins to develop, now we are looking at a long term change in trend. So this is one of the criteria that we have to look at moving forward. [changes to forecast array] Now let's look at the timing of this. From the February high, we had a directional change in March. That has materialized so far, and we ended up with a bit of a, a major volatility rise here in July. And our next real turning point is coming in August - we can see that we have a bit of a choppy period when we come into the elections through October, that's where we have a panic cycle, and then next January is the biggest turning point. So we may see then a movement down, reaction up, if we get a reaction to the upside in January next year that will probably be it on the gold silver ratio. The real breakout in the middle still appears to be more around 2018.

Read this blog starting at page 273 to find out more about computerized fraud

See https://armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog

Firstly, thanks for the information, which I did/do not have access to. If there is a Monthly version, reversals could be helpful.

Secondly, Its important to mention, I am not defending Martin on this "Fallacy" accusation, which I find improper, as you are quoting my title, and somehow linking my observations/chart analysis with what Martin has said about the Subject. I mentioned before about the aspect of Respect.
When I really trade on a chart, there are no assumptions or Sayings, Ifs and buts, but a Strict following of rules.

As I started the Subject, and tried to correlate the Array I will put down some further observations on the short time i had. From the first look of it,
the second major Monthly Reversal held ground, and from the Array, the Composite pointed to a correction, not a long term change in trend.

During this G/S ratio correction both metals rallied. From then on, there is actually a longer term consolidation on Gold with historic relevance, the formation of a head and shoulders and very recently a breakout. Gold front run the brake out, but not Silver, ( taking into consideration the economic situation, financial Stress, Treasuries, no Inflation ) leading to the G/S Wedge formation( this is unrealized of course until proven ).

Recently Silver price is catching up. Usually there is an overshoot on such formations, as in this case of the Wedge, until a change in trend.