The US and squeaky clean services like Gemini and Bitpay will comply, but it'll be interesting to see what the rest of the world does.
If they do, that will push other companies to comply too, to be able to do business with those that do comply.
Definitely, but there is still a
huge demand for KYC-free services. You can tell as much by the way Binance operates: They are willing to segregate their markets rather than go fully compliant. It's also basically a given that a host of countries won't be complying with the FATF travel rule, leaving the door open to non-compliant exchanges.
And that's where things get interesting. Are the Coinbases and Geminis and Bitpays of the world going to blacklist outputs from exchanges like Binance? Bitmex? Smaller altcoin and derivatives exchanges?
Binance is probably thinking about the future and keeping themselves ready for it. However, we all know as a matter of fact that FATF guidelines are taken very seriously worldwide. So I don't think it will be possible for any exchange to have two separate regulations guiding their operations. They will have only two choices in future, either they will comply with the local law which will be formed as per the recommendations given by FATF or they will go out of business or forcefully closed by the governing country.
Since cryptos have no border limitations, a global standard operating procedure has to be created and adopted by every country for crypto transactions. The entire matter is at a very nascent stage right now but slowly taking shape! There will be no space for Coinbase or any other exchange to follow different type of guidelines. All will have to comply with the global standard.