Quote from: 1Referee on September 15, 2019, 10:02:59 PM

Quote from: exstasie on September 15, 2019, 07:49:00 PM

Ultimately I still see room down to the $7K area, where this orange 20-month EMA is. I would be pretty surprised to break below the June monthly pivot at $7,432 (Bitstamp) though:

Just as surprising as we broke through the $6000 level effortlessly? I'm open to the idea of a few stormy weeks below $6000 in the "worst case scenario".

Breaking through $6K so easily was extremely bullish, suggestive of exhausted supply and overwhelming demand. I don't see any reason to assume the same thing would happen in reverse.

Anything is possible though. So I'm open to that scenario but it would probably mean the end of the bull market. I agree with xxxx123abcxxxx here (in fact anything beyond the 78.6% level spells failure to me) about the "faltering bull market":

Quote from: xxxx123abcxxxx on June 27, 2019, 06:27:26 AM

Given the unanticipated surge in regards to both price and time; an advance to new all-time highs, without a notable pullback first, may suggest the advance is the fifth and final PRIMARY wave in its entirety.

A decline to the 88.6% Fibonacci zone may provide the first signal to suggest a faltering bull market. A decline to the 06-FEB-2019 low would terminate the bull market.

For me, the first signal would be a monthly close below the 20 EMA. In 2014 and 2018 that was a clear indication of bear market conditions. I'm betting that won't happen based on the previous bull cycles.

Quote from: 1Referee on September 15, 2019, 10:02:59 PM

Quote from: exstasie on September 15, 2019, 07:49:00 PM

More likely, we'll just retest the low $9,000s one more time like you said. I have a feeling we still need to shake the trees but that's probably it.

Another test? How many horizontal support tests does one need? Cheesy

The more often we test the lower $9000's the more likely it is that it breaks.

Looking at the weekly candles, we've only tested it twice. One more would be typical of a triangle. I agree with you that repeatedly hammering support often suggests an eventual breakdown, but it's not a hard rule either. The $200 area in 2015 is one example where that thinking failed.