Quote from: grod on September 14, 2011, 02:10:46 PM

May I suggest an alternate outcome?

Miners keep mining at the current rate. They keep selling at a current rate. Prices keep dropping at current rate until difficulty starts to drop, and we get the exact inverse of the spiral up.

Deepbit supports this as a possibility, current hash rate is 5000 gigahash -- less than 10% off all time highs. 80% of the hashing power has been added since June, so most of the current bitcoin miners are "late adopters." Late adopters have little vested interest in hoarding bitcoins and making early adopters rich, so a good portion of them sell what they mine. MtGox had 500,000 coins back during the first hack, 700k coins were moved around the latest fear of hacks. It's reasonable to believe another 200k coins have made their way to the market in the last 6 weeks.

200/500 = 40% more float. Definitely more supply.

Now, on the demand side we've seen silkroad becoming much more low key, google trends shrinking, media attention waning and a general decrease in the number of potential new suckers. At the same time we've got prices on a steady, recognizable and undeniable downtrend.

At the moment it'd take ONE MILLION NEW DOLLARS a month to keep prices at $5 if nothing else happened and miners sold what they made to pay for hardware and power. I'll let that sink in a bit. ONE MILLION NEW DOLLARS. Luckily, many miners are content to be bagholders for now, and it takes far less than that to keep prices stable. However, those coins are mined, available, and still a bit of a liability.

TL;DR -- keep waiting. Oh, and if you can, please deposit more money. I'd like to get more than five bucks a coin for mine.

One Million Dollars you say? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-DJtHL3NV1o