If you want to have a statistical calculation you need to have a model to have a reference on how the market will move and we have a small data available as this is a new market, we cannot expect the market to move the same all the time but it is the only reference we can have on how the market used to perform in the past during those situations  .

It is highly unlikely to happen just like that. The past behavior will give you an idea on how the market will perform, it cannot be an accurate prediction but you can use that as a reference.